Decomposing Gradient Suppression in Barren Plateaus: Activity, Sign Organization, and Coupling

Barren plateaus (BPs) are conventionally characterized by suppressed gradient variance, but this aggregate description does not reveal how the loss of gradient signal is composed across Hamiltonian terms. We introduce a term-resolved framework that decomposes the second moment of the gradient exactly into pre-cancellation activity, sign organization, and their statistical coupling. A conditional random-sign model, which preserves termwise magnitudes while treating signs as independent and symmetric, provides exact references for organization and coupling. We apply the framework to a hardware-efficient ansatz (HEA) and a Hamiltonian variational ansatz (HVA) for the transverse-field and longitudinal-field Ising models. For the HEA, finite-size suppression of the second moment is carried almost entirely by decaying activity, accounting for 96.5-98.9% of the fitted log-slope across tested depths in both Hamiltonians, while organization shows no systematic scaling and coupling remains consistent with its random-sign reference. For the HVA, activity and organization instead grow with system size and contribute comparably to the second-moment scaling. A bias-corrected mean-gradient check is consistent with zero in every tested condition, so these results carry over approximately to the gradient variance. Microscopic sign-alignment analysis further shows sector-structured organization in the HVA, whereas the HEA exhibits only weak residual sign structure that does not accumulate into net signed organization. These patterns are reproduced across both Hamiltonians, providing a term-resolved characterization of BP-relevant gradient suppression beyond aggregate gradient statistics.