A latent dimension of Condorcet's jury theorem for multiple AI advisers
On the map: LLM reasoning → Test-time compute and efficient thinking
Abstract (arXiv)
When the same question is asked of multiple AI advisers, as in self-consistency and LLM-as-a-judge panels, Condorcet's jury theorem predicts that adding independent, competent advisers makes the majority more reliable. The theorem, however, has a latent dimension when viewed from the user's vantage: adding advisers also makes disagreement more visible. A binomial model reveals that this ``visible dissent'' becomes nearly inevitable as the number of advisers grows, and that reliability and disagreement approach certainty at rates that cross at an adviser accuracy of 4/5 (0.8); below it, visible dissent eventually becomes more likely than a correct majority. Even ideal panels of independent and competent advisers can be correct in aggregate but appear divided; such disagreement does not by itself indicate aggregation failure. The way advisers split also provides a common basis for predictive multiplicity, reconciliation load, and reliance miscalibration. These results separate aggregation from disclosure and turn the latter into testable questions about how disagreement should be presented and interpreted.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 24 of its 66 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 13 Sep 2026.
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- 2026LLMs as a Jury: Cross-Model Consensus Can Outperform Process Reward Models for LLM Reasoning11 Jul
Other references · 23
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- 2019Predictive Multiplicity in Classificationcited by 166
- 2023Factuality Challenges in the Era of Large Language Modelscited by 126
- 2024What Large Language Models Know and What People Think They Knowcited by 110
- 2021Algorithmic Monoculture and Social Welfarecited by 100
- 2023Appropriate Reliance on AI Advice: Conceptualization and the Effect of Explanationscited by 83
11 more
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