The Oligarch Barely Steers Model Collapse in Multi-Model Ecosystems

More and more of the text future language models learn from is written by a few of today's models. If one supplier writes most of a shared corpus, does it pull the models trained on it toward its own writing, or change how fast they drift? We retrain eight open models from their base weights on a shared pool of each other's text for five generations, varying the part written by one model, Phi-2, from an equal share to 90%. The models drift together toward a style with fewer function words, and none starts repeating itself. No share of Phi-2 brings the other models closer to its text than the equal share does. We split each ecosystem's separation from the equal-share one into a delay along its route and a departure from that route, both counted beyond the difference between two equal-share runs. With Phi-2 at 90%, delay outweighs departure 72 to 28 and 64 to 36 in two runs, and the ecosystem falls 2.7 and 2.5 generations behind. With Phi-2 at half the pool the two parts are about equal. When SmolLM2 or Qwen3-1.7B writes half instead, the ecosystem slows less or not at all. The departure leans toward Phi-2 more as its share grows, but more than toward every other model only at 90%. Human text filling a quarter or half of the pool slows the models along the same route.