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Sharp Structure-Agnostic Minimax Risk for Partial Linear Models

arXiv 2609.07997 ↗First posted 7 Sep 2026cs.LG math.ST stat.THcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

We characterize the sharp structure-agnostic minimax risk for coefficient estimation in the partial linear model when the outcome and treatment nuisances are learned by two distinct black-box learners, which resolves the open problem in double machine learning posed by Gu (2025). For each nuisance (q∈μ,π), we characterize the available learner by an approximation-error budget (aq) and a stochastic-error budget (sq), with the latter controlled through localized Rademacher complexity. Writing (mathcal En) for the minimax mean-squared error, we show that [mathcal Enasymp1wedgeleftfrac1n+left(aμ aπ+minleftaπ sμ+sπ2,,aμ sπ+sμ2rightright)2right.] The main new ingredient is a novel lower bound for the general two-learner problem. Our proof constructs four finite-mixture testing experiments using orthogonal code functions. Across these experiments, the hidden perturbations are placed outside both learner classes, outside only the treatment learner class, outside only the outcome learner class, or inside both learner classes. These four configurations capture, respectively, the interaction between the two approximation errors, the two asymmetric interactions between one learner's approximation error and the other learner's learning error, and the joint estimation difficulty of learning both nuisances. Combining the four resulting lower bounds yields the displayed rate, which matches the latest upper bound in Gu (2026). Our result shows that standard double machine learning can overstate the intrinsic difficulty of target estimation and provides a target-specific principle for learner selection: approximation error and stochastic complexity must be jointly balanced across the two nuisance learners rather than optimized separately.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 14 of its 36 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 7 Sep 2026.

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References · 14

  1. 2018De-Biased Machine Learning of Global and Local Parameters Using Regularized Riesz Representerscited by 34
  2. 2017Orthogonal Machine Learning: Power and Limitationscited by 28
  3. 2023The Fundamental Limits of Structure-Agnostic Functional Estimationcited by 12
  4. 2021A Simple and General Debiased Machine Learning Theorem with Finite Sample Guaranteescited by 9
  5. 2021On Doubly Robust Inference for Double Machine Learning in Semiparametric Regressioncited by 6
  6. 2025It's Hard to Be Normal: The Impact of Noise on Structure-agnostic Estimationcited by 6
  7. 2025Wild refitting for black box predictioncited by 5
  8. 2025Sharp Structure-Agnostic Lower Bounds for General Linear Functional Estimationcited by 3
  9. 2026Interleaved Resampling and Refitting: Data and Compute-Efficient Evaluation of Black-Box Predictorscited by 3
  10. 2026Optimally taming biases in black-box models for efficient semiparametric estimationcited by 3
  11. 2026On the Asymptotic Inadmissibility of Double Machine Learning Estimators Under Structure-Agnostic Modelscited by 3
  12. 2025Perturbing the Derivative: Doubly Wild Refitting for Model-Free Evaluation of Opaque Machine Learning Predictorscited by 2
2 more
  1. 2026Upper Confidence Bounds for the Prediction Error of Kernel Ridge Regression via Gaussian Refittingcited by 2
  2. 2026Optimal use of a black-box learner in semiparametric estimationcited by 1

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