When Load-Balancing Goes Too Far: Expert Pruning in Over-Dispersed Mixture-of-Experts Models

Expert pruning reduces the memory and serving cost of Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models by removing low-importance experts identified by the router, assuming router probabilities provide a reliable importance signal. We observe that this assumption breaks down under over-dispersed routing, a regime associated with aggressive load-balancing during training, in which tokens are distributed nearly uniformly across experts and importance signals collapse. In this regime, perplexity does not predict downstream task accuracy: on gpt-oss-20B, the lowest-perplexity pruning configuration yields the worst mathematical reasoning, while the highest-perplexity configuration preserves it. This does not occur under standard routing (e.g., Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct), where perplexity and accuracy degrade together. Pruning under over-dispersed routing also exposes a capability trade-off in which no single scoring metric dominates: activation-aware scoring preserves mathematical reasoning but severely degrades knowledge-intensive science (an 18-point gap on GPQA), whereas frequency-based scoring exhibits the reverse. We propose Minimax Expert Score Allocation (MESA), a domain-aware method that iteratively boosts importance scores for experts serving whichever domain is currently worst-affected, minimizing worst-case domain degradation rather than average accuracy. At 25% expert pruning MESA achieves the smallest worst-case degradation across domains, outperforming activation-aware baselines on 7 of 11 benchmarks at a correspondingly reduced memory footprint, and it generalizes to gpt-oss-120B, Gemma-4-26B-A4B, and OLMoE-1B-7B. Our results indicate that over-dispersed routing is a qualitatively distinct pruning regime in which standard assumptions fail, and that recognizing it is a prerequisite for principled expert pruning of load-balanced MoE models.