Fiber Fingerprints of Hidden Learning-State Dynamics

A learning system can occupy execution states that are indistinguishable under every declared present-behavior readout yet respond differently to future training. We formalize this through fiber fingerprints: controlled future-learning response laws restricted to present-behavior equivalence classes. Prefix-compatible finite probes induce a predictive quotient functor, a Nerode-type minimal recursively sufficient representation, and a canonical set-level predictive fiber without assuming smoothness, reversibility, finite rank, or a manifold. Under an explicit finite-dimensional Hilbert realization, response decomposes into visible, visible-mode-reuse, and irreducible-new sectors; a history-reachability bridge retains only distinctions generated by natural training histories. Conditional mechanism results then identify a graph-Hodge chronology decomposition, a regular switching class with root-mean-square scale √pη3/2 and finite-scale corrections, and an exact Adam moment section whose immediate adaptive field is constant while common future gradients can reveal hidden moment differences. Frozen Transformer--LoRA--AdamW studies with Qwen2.5-7B and Mistral-7B-v0.3 support a local action backbone, longer-horizon first-return non-closure, and fresh visible-relative completion with output-range reuse and a low-rank irreducible sector. Stronger claims remain bounded by preregistered negative or mixed results: re-anchored transport is unresolved above its measurement floor; the strict finite-grid Hodge--3/2 conjunction is unmet despite prospective contraction; Qwen accessibility is not established in the frozen raw moment chart; and Mistral revelation is future-context dependent rather than bank invariant. Within these support-, scale-, metric-, and context-resolved boundaries, present behavior is not a sufficient statistic for declared future learning.