Personalization, Personas, and Forecasting in Value Alignment

LLM behavior may be conditioned by human identity in several ways: they may be asked to adapt to users, role-play populations, or forecast how people would answer value-laden questions. We test whether these framings are interchangeable using the World Values Survey (WVS). We evaluate GPT-5.4, Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 2.5 Flash, and Qwen3-235B on 101 WVS-derived questions across 13 language-country slices, comparing a language-only baseline with user-country, persona-country, and third-person prompts. Across 21,008 model-response rows, prompt framing is a first-order determinant of cultural alignment: country cues often shift answers substantially, but not all shifts move toward matched human response distributions. Third-person forecasting yields the strongest directional alignment for three of the four hosted models, while personalization and role-play are weaker or less stable. Alignment gains concentrate on salient value dimensions such as religiosity, gender roles, and work-oriented material values, whereas institutional trust and democracy-related questions remain difficult. These results show that prompt framing is not a cosmetic choice in cultural value elicitation; it changes both model behavior and measured alignment.