STEP: Career-Path Recommendation via Temporal and Educational Trajectory Modeling

Career paths encode decades of skill acquisition, role transitions, and educational investment, and understanding them at scale underpins workforce planning, labor market policy, and job recommendation. Resumes are a rich source of information about career paths: they contain detailed descriptions of work experience, education, and skills. Yet their unstructured, heterogeneous, and multilingual nature has long prevented large-scale systematic analysis. With the advent of large language models (LLMs), it is now possible to source rich career trajectory data containing temporal and educational signals from unstructured resumes, enabling new opportunities for career-path recommendation. Exploiting this opportunity, we present STEP (Sequential Trajectory of Employment Prediction), a novel career-path recommendation system that leverages temporal and educational signals to predict the next job in a career trajectory. STEP integrates a time-decay Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) cell to model temporal dynamics, Feature-wise Linear Modulation (FiLM) conditioned on educational attainment, and attention-based sequence pooling to select relevant features for next job prediction. To improve internal occupation representation for STEP, we introduce ROUTE, a two-stage contrastive procedure that first adapts a multilingual encoder to the career domain via unsupervised denoising autoencoding, then performs supervised contrastive fine-tuning with guided negative selection. We evaluate STEP on four datasets of career trajectories, including an improved version of our publicly available JobHop dataset, and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in next job prediction. The dataset and code are publicly released to support reproducible career-trajectory research.