Catalyst Papers in Artificial Intelligence Research: A Landscape on ICLR from 2017 to 2025

A small number of methodological contributions, including word2vec, the Transformer, large-scale pre-training, and reinforcement learning from human feedback, have reshaped NLP and AI research over the past decade. OpenReview now makes numeric reviewer scores and accept/reject decisions public for every ICLR submission. Whether such review signals identify trajectory-changing papers at submission time, however, remains untested at corpus scale. We answer this question on 36,113 papers from ICLR 2017--2025, identifying catalysts: papers whose descendants measurably redirect future research. We compare four disruptiveness measures (the Consolidation/Destabilization (CD) index, node2vec, the direction-aware Embedding Disruptiveness Measure (EDM), and an LLM-based semantic rater) and define a five-type operational catalyst taxonomy (topic initiator, topic bridge, within-topic redirector, simultaneous, and recognition-misaligned). EDM leads at identifying highly cited ICLR papers (AUC 0.83 vs. 0.60 for CD, 0.49 for node2vec, and 0.42 for the LLM rater). Topic initiators precede a 7.55× topic-share growth and topic bridges precede an 11.52× growth in cross-topic citation flow versus year-matched controls. We found that the peer review scores are essentially orthogonal to future disruptiveness (|ρ|≤0.005; accepted and rejected papers have indistinguishable mean EDM, p=0.11).