Critical Interval MSE: Toward Reliable Offline Validation for Robot Manipulation Policies

Real-world evaluation is the gold standard for robot manipulation policies because it tests them against the physical conditions and deployment challenges they are ultimately designed to handle. However, real-world evaluation is also the bottleneck for iterating on robot imitation learning policies: it is costly, difficult to reproduce, and often too sparse to reliably compare nearby model variants. A straightforward proxy for performance is validation loss on expert demonstrations, but this proxy is often poorly correlated with real-world performance. In this paper, we introduce Critical Interval MSE (CI-MSE), an intuitively simple yet effective offline validation metric. CI-MSE uses a zero-shot agent to localize task-critical segments, restricts error computation to those segments, and applies simple action-alignment procedures that better match rollout-time behavior. Across simulation and real-world experiments, CI-MSE generally yields a stronger correlation between validation error and rollout performance than raw MSE. Across 27 distinct policy checkpoints, CI-MSE achieves a Spearman rank correlation of -0.87, closer to the ideal value of -1 than raw MSE's -0.61, demonstrating a significant improvement. Sensitivity analysis shows that our metric is robust across a wide range of hyperparameter settings. We further study the effectiveness of CI-MSE under evaluation distribution shifts and identify practical boundaries for its use. In summary, this paper provides a simple and reliable offline validation tool for accelerating policy iteration. Project webpage: https://ci-mse.github.io/