CRAFT: Counterfactual Credit Assignment from Free Sibling Rollouts for Self-Distilled Agentic Reinforcement Learning

Self-distilled agentic reinforcement learning augments trajectory-level reward with a token-level distillation loss, using as its teacher the same policy conditioned on privileged context. The prevailing recipe gates this loss by a single scalar, the teacher-student log-probability gap. This signal is doubly limited: it is retrospective, scoring only the realised rollout and never the counterfactual ones, and it is sign-blind, never signalling when a teacher-preferred action would have harmed the trajectory. We introduce CRAFT, a three-pillar credit-assignment scheme that addresses both limitations. Pillar 1, Counterfactual Token Importance, reuses the G-1 sibling rollouts that GRPO already samples and importance-weights them by the log-probability gap to form a self-normalised estimate of the group-level counterfactual change in advantage from up-weighting teacher-preferred actions at each step; this yields a signed per-token credit at near-zero extra compute. Pillar 2 is an asymmetric controller that raises the distillation weight as it lowers the reference-KL weight along an exponential moving average of gate activity, and conversely. Pillar 3 polarises the KL penalty token by token, switching between a mode-seeking and a mode-covering update according to the sign of the credit. Each pillar has an independent switch that, when disabled, renders the loss and gradient byte-identical to the baseline in IEEE-754 arithmetic, so any measured gain is attributable to algorithmic change rather than implementation drift. We prove the estimator's consistency and a variance bound, give structural and bit-exact reproducibility guarantees, and evaluate CRAFT across three agentic environments, four model scales, and five end-to-end methods, plus two tabulated prior-work baselines. Among these is Adaptive-CRINGE, a comparator sharing Pillar 2 with CRAFT, isolating the counterfactual contribution.