AI Trading's Alpha Singularity: Emergent Market Reasoning through Agent-to-Agent Self-Evolution
On the map: LLM reasoning → Reasoning for agents, planning and code
also in 1 more
Abstract (arXiv)
Automated alpha mining holds the scoring function fixed and varies the search algorithm over it. A search that converges against a fixed scorer overfits whatever the scorer cannot penalize, a primary cause of the out-of-sample generalization gap. We treat the scoring function as a search artifact alongside the alpha factors and study what conditions make this joint search admissible. Sealed Joint Search (SJS) is a framework: a set of structural conditions on information flow in an autonomous-discovery system that prevent joint search from collapsing into self-confirmation while keeping the evaluator sealed. Conditions cover role decomposition, typed inter-role communication, provenance-sealed reads, versioned stores, and substrate-local promotion. Agora tests SJS empirically: five LLM agent classes communicate via three channels, evolving eight skill libraries, with alpha libraries built on AlphaGen operators. Three evaluators write reports aggregated into one brief, carrying forward disagreement instead of voting. We run Agora for 100 rounds on CSI 1000 and evaluate on a 91-day 2026 holdout sealed from all LLM inputs. Agora achieves holdout Sharpe +1.87; best baseline +1.334 at favorable seed and -0.755 cross-seed mean. Pre-loading Agora's two metrics into a frozen-library ablation recovers only +0.40 of the +2.25 Sharpe gap, and adding PPO without library evolution worsens the gap. The two metrics emerge rather than being designed. Caveats: single-seed run, short-side concentrated signal, intended for long-short.
Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Reasoning for agents, planning and code, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 33 of its 58 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 28 Jun 2026.
Builds on
33 of 58 references.
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Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 3.
3 papers.
- 2026AgonAlpha: Autonomous Alpha Discovery via Prompt Economy and Scalable Agentic Searchcited by 0
- 2026VST: Verifiable Structured Transport for Auditable Agent-to-Agent Alpha Discoverycited by 0
- 2026EverMine: Dissecting the Self-Evolution of Research Capabilities in Long-Horizon Alpha Researchcited by 0
- 2026EverMine: Dissecting the Self-Evolution of Research Capabilities in Long-Horizon Alpha Research27 Sep 2026
- 2026VST: Verifiable Structured Transport for Auditable Agent-to-Agent Alpha Discovery7 Sep 2026
- 2026AgonAlpha: Autonomous Alpha Discovery via Prompt Economy and Scalable Agentic Search4 Aug 2026
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- 2026AutoScientist-Quant: Self-Evolving Coding Agents for Automatic Research in Quantitative Investment
- 2025Agentic AI for Clustering, Relationship Discovery, and Semantic Trading in Prediction Markets
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