mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Towards Continuous Power Forecasting: Practical Continual Learning for Real-World Energy Systems in Nonstationary Time Series

arXiv 2606.24955 ↗First posted 23 Jun 2026cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Power forecasting models deployed in real-world energy markets must operate under nonstationary conditions, where data distributions continually evolve due to weather variability, infrastructure upgrades, and changing consumption behaviors. In practice, these models face strict operational constraints: historical data may be limited or unavailable for repeated retraining, and uninterrupted long-term service is often required. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing the paradigm of Continuous Power Forecasting, which views power forecasting as a continual learning problem rather than a static offline task. Based on an adaptive continual learning framework for regression, we systematically investigate the practical effectiveness of six representative continual learning approaches from three methodological categories. These approaches are evaluated under different realistic assumptions regarding data accessibility and update policies. Experimental validation on real-world power datasets demonstrates that continual learning enables forecasting models to self-adapt to distributional drift, accumulate knowledge over time, and mitigate catastrophic forgetting without relying on large-scale historical data storage. Beyond performance gains, our study provides practical insights into the stability and adaptation behaviors of different continual learning approaches under realistic operational constraints. Overall, this work illustrates how continual learning can be pragmatically integrated into industrial power forecasting pipelines, offering a scalable and sustainable solution for long-term deployment in dynamic environments.

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17 of 23 references.

References · 17

  1. 2016Overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networkscited by 4,718
  2. 2016iCaRL: Incremental Classifier and Representation Learningcited by 2,313
  3. 2020Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecastingcited by 2,141
  4. 2022A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformerscited by 1,981
  5. 2021Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecastingcited by 1,654
  6. 2016Progressive Neural Networkscited by 1,332
  7. 2017Continual Learning with Deep Generative Replaycited by 1,152
  8. 2018Experience Replay for Continual Learningcited by 1,074
  9. 2023A Comprehensive Survey of Continual Learning: Theory, Method and Applicationcited by 860
  10. 2018Progress & Compress: A scalable framework for continual learningcited by 516
  11. 2020Learning under Concept Drift: A Reviewcited by 470
  12. 2017CORe50: a New Dataset and Benchmark for Continuous Object Recognitioncited by 287
5 more
  1. 2018Re-evaluating Continual Learning Scenarios: A Categorization and Case for Strong Baselinescited by 228
  2. 2018Generative replay with feedback connections as a general strategy for continual learningcited by 103
  3. 2017Online Deep Learning: Learning Deep Neural Networks on the Flycited by 86
  4. 2021CLeaR: An Adaptive Continual Learning Framework for Regression Taskscited by 21
  5. 2020Continual Learning with Gated Incremental Memories for sequential data processingcited by 12

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