The Anatomy of the CTC Oracle Gap: Acoustic Exhaustion and Linguistic Recovery

We study the limits of CTC-internal scoring for N-best hypothesis selection and locate the information bottleneck separating acoustic confidence from linguistic plausibility. Eleven CTC-internal and acoustic-feature scoring strategies produce no statistically significant WER improvement over greedy decoding on LibriSpeech dev-other at G=16 (all p > 0.05). The exhaustion is systematic: CTC's Spearman ρ between hypothesis score and per-utterance WER degrades from -0.574 at G=4 to -0.270 at G=128, a 53% loss driven by blank-path proliferation. This establishes that the discriminative capacity of CTC-internal representations is saturated: no recombination of acoustic signals can close the oracle gap. Confirming that the bottleneck is linguistic, not acoustic, external linguistic information introduced via MBR decoding breaks through it. MBR-CER decoding with a RoBERTa pseudo-log-likelihood (PLL) posterior (τ=10, G=128) achieves 5.42% WER on held-out LibriSpeech test-other (greedy 5.96%, Delta=-0.535 pp, p<0.0001, 9.0% relative). RoBERTa PLL ρ degrades only 21% over the same range, retaining discriminating power where CTC loses it. Applied without retuning across two Zipformer architectures, three domains (LibriSpeech, TED-LIUM 3, VoxPopuli), and four MUSAN noise levels, the recipe gives significant gains in 11 of 13 conditions. On the training side, standard MWER training via the CTC forward-backward algorithm implements Rao-Blackwellized REINFORCE at the output projection (variance about 3x below Viterbi). Yet sequence-level fine-tuning fails at near-converged checkpoints: all four MWER configurations on CR-CTC collapse (+6.18 to +8.90 pp WER), as a training oracle gap of 0.007 pp provides no usable reward signal.