Inference-Time Conformal Reasoning with Valid Factuality Control for Large Language Models
On the map: LLM reasoning → Test-time compute and efficient thinking
Abstract (arXiv)
Large language models (LLMs) increasingly perform multi-step reasoning, where intermediate claims form implicit directed acyclic graphs whose node correctness is structurally conditioned on their ancestors. This makes factuality uncertainty structural, rather than a trivial accumulation of node-wise errors, and necessitates inference-time uncertainty quantification over the reasoning structure. While conformal prediction (CP) offers flexible user-specified factuality control, existing work remains post-hoc and cannot intervene during generation. To fill the gap between CP's flexibility and its post-hoc limitation, we propose an Inference-Time Conformal Reasoning (ITCR) framework that integrates CP directly into reasoning graph generation. ITCR learns a structure-level factuality uncertainty function that aggregates claim-level factuality signals over reasoning graphs without complex modeling assumptions. We then design the non-conformity score based on graph-level factuality uncertainty and calibrate the conformal threshold to decide when to stop generation. We theoretically show such generation is nested, yielding valid coverage guarantees for factuality control. Experiments over multiple datasets and coverage objectives demonstrate empirically valid coverage. In downstream reasoning tasks, inference-time calibrated graphs yield more accurate generation than post-hoc pruned graphs.
Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 11 of its 70 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 7 Jun 2026.
Builds on
11 of 70 references.
References · 11
- 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,715
- 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 10,109
- 2025Qwen3 Technical Reportcited by 8,820
- 2021A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 792
- 2023Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answeringcited by 139
- 2022Faithful Reasoning Using Large Language Modelscited by 130
- 2025Conformal Prediction Sets for Deep Generative Models via Reduction to Conformal Regressioncited by 10
- 2024CONFLARE: CONFormal LArge language model REtrievalcited by 6
- 2023RF-GNN: Random Forest Boosted Graph Neural Network for Social Bot Detectioncited by 5
- 2025Thinking with Nothinking Calibration: A New In-Context Learning Paradigm in Reasoning Large Language Modelscited by 4
- 2025GraphMind: Theorem Selection and Conclusion Generation Framework with Dynamic GNN for LLM Reasoningcited by 2
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 3.
3 papers.
- 2026Certify or Refuse: A Cross-Model Map for Selective Risk Control with Coverage Floors under Covariate Shiftcited by 0
- 2026Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents: A Taxonomy, an Evaluation Protocol, and an Empirical Studycited by 0
- 2026G-CARB: Graph-Localized Conformal Agent Risk Budget for Compositional Harmcited by 0
- 2026G-CARB: Graph-Localized Conformal Agent Risk Budget for Compositional Harm4 Oct 2026
- 2026Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents: A Taxonomy, an Evaluation Protocol, and an Empirical Study7 Sep 2026
- 2026Certify or Refuse: A Cross-Model Map for Selective Risk Control with Coverage Floors under Covariate Shift11 Aug 2026
Similar, not cited
Close in wording, no citation either way
- 2026Though Language Models Err While They Strive: Conformal Prediction for Self-Correcting Scientific Generation
- 2026Differentiable Conformal Training for LLM Reasoning Factuality
- 2026Think Through Uncertainty: Improving Long-Form Generation Factuality via Reasoning Calibration
- 2026Enhancing reasoning accuracy in large language models during inference time
- 2026Dual-Dimensional Consistency: Balancing Budget and Quality in Adaptive Inference-Time Scaling
- 2026Quantifying and Understanding Uncertainty in Large Reasoning Models
- 2026Conditional Factuality Controlled LLMs with Generalization Certificates via Conformal Sampling
- 2025Graph of Verification: Structured Verification of LLM Reasoning with Directed Acyclic Graphs