Civilizational Metamaterials: Engineering Coordination Under Capability Gradients and Structural Turbulence
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Abstract (arXiv)
We argue that governance must transition from a normative discipline to an engineering discipline, and we develop a formal framework, inspired by the physics of metamaterials, to make this transition quantitative and testable. Artificial General Intelligence affects civilization primarily by increasing decision velocity while human verification capacity remains bounded. When the cost of validating AI-generated outputs exceeds the expected utility of acting on them, rational agents default to inaction: a stable but catastrophic Nash equilibrium we term the Freezing Equilibrium. Drawing on metamaterials, where emergent macro-properties arise from designed microstructure, we develop a phenomenological constitutive law for institutional coordination: Reff = β · (1-ρ) · (1-τ) · (1-γ ρ τ), where β is the decision branching factor, ρ is provenance fidelity, τ is the verification rate, and γ ∈ [0,1] captures correlated-detection synergy between provenance and verification failures. The model predicts a sharp phase transition between self-healing (Reff < 1) and self-destabilizing (Reff > 1) regimes. We introduce a three-class provenance taxonomy: cryptographic, institutional, and context binding, and derive four falsifiable hypotheses with a proposed 12-week stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial in government grant review panels. The framework bridges AI alignment theory and institutional design.
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References · 10
- 2017Deep reinforcement learning from human preferencescited by 3,912
- 2016Concrete Problems in AI Safetycited by 1,642
- 2020Artificial Intelligence, Values and Alignmentcited by 448
- 2018AI safety via debatecited by 400
- 2022Measuring Progress on Scalable Oversight for Large Language Modelscited by 225
- 2023An Overview of Catastrophic AI Riskscited by 222
- 2022Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?cited by 105
- 2024Visibility into AI Agentscited by 79
- 2020AI Research Considerations for Human Existential Safety (ARCHES)cited by 33
- 2025Jolting Technologies: Superexponential Acceleration in AI Capabilities and Implications for AGIcited by 1
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