mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Multivariate Financial Forecasting using the Chronos Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv 2605.21504 ↗First posted 8 May 2026q-fin.ST cs.AIcited by 2

Not on the map. Why?

Abstract (arXiv)

Using Chronos-2, an open-source time-series foundation model, we evaluate pretrained time-series models for economic and financial forecasting with an emphasis on whether multivariate (MV) inputs improve accuracy relative to univariate (UV) baselines. The study covers two panels -- the Magnificent-7 equities and U.S. Treasury interest rates -- as well as a combined panel, using rolling monthly evaluations from 2000--2025. We vary input window lengths and forecast horizons and report RMSE and MAPE. Across datasets, MV forecasts consistently outperform UV forecasts, with especially strong gains for interest rates and meaningful improvements for equities. Series-level comparisons show MV improvements in every case, and error dispersion is generally lower under MV inputs. We also provide parameter-heatmap and time-series visualizations. However, mixing time series across equity and interest rate markets reduces forecast accuracy, indicating that adding noisy context degrades model performance. Overall, the results indicate that foundation models can leverage cross-series information to improve forecast accuracy in finance, and that the benefits are strongest when related series are modeled jointly under disciplined rolling protocols. Other than using an open-source foundation model, this paper also showcases how AI may be used for financial research.

Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 3 of its 34 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 8 May 2026.

Builds on

3 of 34 references.

References · 3

  1. 2019Financial Time Series Forecasting with Deep Learning : A Systematic Literature Review: 2005-2019cited by 273
  2. 2017A Statistical Machine Learning Approach to Yield Curve Forecastingcited by 2
  3. 2026A Review of Large Language Models for Stock Price Forecasting from a Hedge-Fund Perspectivecited by 2

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.

2 papers.