First-Passage Prediction of Grokking Delay: ACalibrated Law under AdamW with Causal Validation

We give the first quantitative prediction of grokking delay under AdamW. Treating the delay as a first-passage time, we derive a closed-form law T_grok - T_mem = (1 / 2 kappa_LL eta lambda) log(V_mem / V_star), where V_t = ||theta_t||^2 is the squared parameter norm, V_star is an architecture-dependent threshold, and kappa_LL absorbs the AdamW correction to the clean-SGD contraction rate 2 eta lambda. Calibrating (kappa_LL, V_star) on a single hyperparameter cell predicts grokking delays on 26 held-out runs with MAPE 17.7% over a 41x delay range; the law generalises to MLPs (MAPE 18.0%, N=34) and degrades to 23.3% on cross-task extension (N=46, 43.5x range), with a structured residual in which V_star / V_mem stays comparatively stable within architecture (CV about 14% on the 1L transformer). First-passage of V_t is necessary but not sufficient. A quantile-margin theorem establishes that positive delay requires both norm separation V_mem > V_post and angular reachability of a threshold alpha_star = arcsin(C / V_T_mem^(1/2)), where C is computable from the empirical NTK feature map and the validation-margin quantile. Calibrating C on modulus p=89 predicts alpha_star = 47.2 degrees at p=97 (observed 47.8 degrees, error 1.3%) as a prior cross-cell prediction. Causal interventions that freeze the norm or remove weight decay at memorisation eliminate grokking (0/6 vs. 3/3 baseline), trapping the angular displacement near 12 degrees. kappa_LL is empirically measured per architecture rather than derived from (beta_1, beta_2, epsilon); within-architecture CV stays at most 15% across four architectures, but values differ by about 2x between architectural variants beyond depth alone. Empirical scope is algorithmic tasks (modular arithmetic, sparse parity) under AdamW; whether the law transfers to natural-language scale models is open.