Semantic State Abstraction Interfaces for LLM-Augmented Portfolio Decisions: Multi-Axis News Decomposition and RL Diagnostics
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Abstract (arXiv)
We introduce Semantic State Abstraction Interfaces (SSAI): a methodological template for mapping sparse unstructured text into K auditable, named coordinates with neutral defaults on no-news days, designed to separate representation hypotheses from optimisation variance in sequential decision systems. Our contribution is the framework and its evaluation protocol, not a claim that SSAI outperforms denser alternatives. We instantiate SSAI with K=4 axes (sentiment, risk, confidence, volatility forecast) on a US-equity panel (30 NASDAQ-100 names, FNSPID news, 2019--2023 test), and evaluate it across direct factor portfolios, supervised ridge forecasters, and RL agents (DP-PPO, SAC) that share the same fixed φ. The four-factor factor portfolio reaches 307.2% cumulative return and Sharpe 1.067, but apparent gains versus buy-and-hold (243.6%) fail coverage-stratified controls, reverse at ≥ 0.2% costs, and are statistically fragile versus a sentiment-only baseline; a PC1 composite and a FinBERT portfolio baseline are stronger ranking signals in this setting. Ridge and RL blocks diagnose representation versus optimiser effects. We position SSAI as an interpretability-performance diagnostic and reusable protocol for sparse-text decision systems.
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References · 7
- 2020Language Models are Few-Shot Learnerscited by 32,419
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- 2017A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictionscited by 6,555
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- 2023Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? Return Predictability and Large Language Modelscited by 129
- 2020FinRL: A Deep Reinforcement Learning Library for Automated Stock Trading in Quantitative Financecited by 87
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