Order-based Rehearsal Learning

When a machine learning (ML) model forecasts an undesired event, one often seeks a decision to avoid it, known as the avoiding undesired future (AUF) problem. Many rehearsal learning methods have been proposed for AUF, but they rely on an underlying graph structure; learning such a graph from observational data is challenging and can incur substantial estimation error. In this work, we demonstrate that the order structure can be sufficient for AUF decision-making, and propose the first order-based rehearsal learning method. Although an order is less informative than a graph, it can be sufficient to identify the influence of decisions from observational data, suggesting that learning the entire graph is not always necessary. To learn the order, we develop an information-theoretic method that imposes no restrictions on the form of structural functions or the type of noise distributions. For AUF decision-making, we construct an order-based sampler to approximate the influence of decisions and, combined with a surrogate objective for maximizing the post-decision success probability, reduce the AUF task to a differentiable optimization problem. Experiments show that our order learning method outperforms existing methods, and that our AUF approach not only surpasses methods relying on learned graphs or learned orders, but also matches or even exceeds oracle baselines that are given the true graph.