Are LLM Uncertainty and Correctness Encoded by the Same Features? A Functional Dissociation via Sparse Autoencoders
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Large language models can be uncertain yet correct, or confident yet wrong, raising the question of whether their output-level uncertainty and their actual correctness are driven by the same internal mechanisms or by distinct feature populations. We introduce a 2x2 framework that partitions model predictions along correctness and confidence axes, and uses sparse autoencoders to identify features associated with each dimension independently. Applying this to Llama-3.1-8B and Gemma-2-9B, we identify three feature populations that play fundamentally different functional roles. Pure uncertainty features are functionally essential: suppressing them severely degrades accuracy. Pure incorrectness features are functionally inert: despite showing statistically significant activation differences between correct and incorrect predictions, the majority produce near-zero change in accuracy when suppressed. Confounded features that encode both signals are detrimental to output quality, and targeted suppression of them yields a 1.1% accuracy improvement and a 75% entropy reduction, with effects transferring across the ARC-Challenge and RACE benchmarks. The feature categories are also informationally distinct: the activations of just 3 confounded features from a single mid-network layer predict model correctness (AUROC ~0.79), enabling selective abstention that raises accuracy from 62% to 81% at 53% coverage. The results demonstrate that uncertainty and correctness are distinct internal phenomena, with implications for interpretability and targeted inference-time intervention.
Key facts. Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 20 of its 23 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 21 Apr 2026.
Builds on
20 of 23 references.
References · 20
- 2025Qwen3 Technical Reportcited by 8,195
- 2020Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understandingcited by 7,768
- 2018Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challengecited by 4,710
- 2023A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questionscited by 1,582
- 2023Sparse Autoencoders Find Highly Interpretable Features in Language Modelscited by 1,359
- 2023Inference-Time Intervention: Eliciting Truthful Answers from a Language Modelcited by 1,259
- 2025OpenAI GPT-5 System Cardcited by 910
- 2017RACE: Large-scale ReAding Comprehension Dataset From Examinationscited by 851
- 2023Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generationcited by 795
- 2022Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervisioncited by 733
- 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 644
- 2023Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Modelscited by 286
8 more
- 2023Large Language Models in Finance: A Surveycited by 223
- 2024Llama Scope: Extracting Millions of Features from Llama-3.1-8B with Sparse Autoencoderscited by 133
- 2023The Truth is in There: Improving Reasoning in Language Models with Layer-Selective Rank Reductioncited by 120
- 2024Do I Know This Entity? Knowledge Awareness and Hallucinations in Language Modelscited by 114
- 2024(A)I Am Not a Lawyer, But...: Engaging Legal Experts towards Responsible LLM Policies for Legal Advicecited by 61
- 2024LLM Uncertainty Quantification through Directional Entailment Graph and Claim Level Response Augmentationcited by 22
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models through Multi-Dimensional Responsescited by 17
- 2024TRAWL: Tensor Reduced and Approximated Weights for Large Language Modelscited by 5
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 5.
5 papers.
- 2026Two Axes of LLM Abstention: Answer Correctness and Question Answerabilitycited by 4
- 2026Diagnosing Multi-step Reasoning Failures in Black-box LLMs via Stepwise Confidence Attributioncited by 2
- 2026The Geometry of Forgetting: Temporal Knowledge Drift as an Independent Axis in LLM Representationscited by 1
- 2026Diagnosing Correctness Probes under Self-Judgement Confoundingcited by 1
- 2026Active Budget Can Kill Sensitivity: Diagnosing and Repairing TopK Sparse Autoencoder Reliabilitycited by 0
- 2026Active Budget Can Kill Sensitivity: Diagnosing and Repairing TopK Sparse Autoencoder Reliability29 Sep 2026
- 2026Diagnosing Correctness Probes under Self-Judgement Confounding18 Jul 2026
- 2026Two Axes of LLM Abstention: Answer Correctness and Question Answerability9 Jul 2026
- 2026Diagnosing Multi-step Reasoning Failures in Black-box LLMs via Stepwise Confidence Attribution19 May 2026
- 2026The Geometry of Forgetting: Temporal Knowledge Drift as an Independent Axis in LLM Representations9 May 2026