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Anticipatory Reinforcement Learning: From Generative Path-Laws to Distributional Value Functions

arXiv 2604.04662 ↗First posted 6 Apr 2026cs.LG q-fin.MF q-fin.PRcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

This paper introduces Anticipatory Reinforcement Learning (ARL), a novel framework designed to bridge the gap between non-Markovian decision processes and classical reinforcement learning architectures, specifically under the constraint of a single observed trajectory. In environments characterised by jump-diffusions and structural breaks, traditional state-based methods often fail to capture the essential path-dependent geometry required for accurate foresight. We resolve this by lifting the state space into a signature-augmented manifold, where the history of the process is embedded as a dynamical coordinate. By utilising a self-consistent field approach, the agent maintains an anticipated proxy of the future path-law, allowing for a deterministic evaluation of expected returns. This transition from stochastic branching to a single-pass linear evaluation significantly reduces computational complexity and variance. We prove that this framework preserves fundamental contraction properties and ensures stable generalisation even in the presence of heavy-tailed noise. Our results demonstrate that by grounding reinforcement learning in the topological features of path-space, agents can achieve proactive risk management and superior policy stability in highly volatile, continuous-time environments.

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References · 17

  1. 2020Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 20,851
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5 more
  1. 2022Signature Methods in Machine Learningcited by 33
  2. 2022Optimal Estimation of Generic Dynamics by Path-Dependent Neural Jump ODEscited by 7
  3. 2023Extending Path-Dependent NJ-ODEs to Noisy Observations and a Dependent Observation Frameworkcited by 6
  4. 2025Learning with Expected Signatures: Theory and Applicationscited by 3
  5. 2025Neural Jump ODEs as Generative Modelscited by 3

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