Anticipatory Reinforcement Learning: From Generative Path-Laws to Distributional Value Functions
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
This paper introduces Anticipatory Reinforcement Learning (ARL), a novel framework designed to bridge the gap between non-Markovian decision processes and classical reinforcement learning architectures, specifically under the constraint of a single observed trajectory. In environments characterised by jump-diffusions and structural breaks, traditional state-based methods often fail to capture the essential path-dependent geometry required for accurate foresight. We resolve this by lifting the state space into a signature-augmented manifold, where the history of the process is embedded as a dynamical coordinate. By utilising a self-consistent field approach, the agent maintains an anticipated proxy of the future path-law, allowing for a deterministic evaluation of expected returns. This transition from stochastic branching to a single-pass linear evaluation significantly reduces computational complexity and variance. We prove that this framework preserves fundamental contraction properties and ensures stable generalisation even in the presence of heavy-tailed noise. Our results demonstrate that by grounding reinforcement learning in the topological features of path-space, agents can achieve proactive risk management and superior policy stability in highly volatile, continuous-time environments.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 17 of its 42 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 6 Apr 2026.
Builds on
17 of 42 references.
References · 17
- 2020Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 20,851
- 2018Neural Ordinary Differential Equationscited by 3,733
- 2021Decision Transformer: Reinforcement Learning via Sequence Modelingcited by 1,528
- 2020Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Irregular Time Seriescited by 501
- 2015Deep Recurrent Q-Learning for Partially Observable MDPscited by 457
- 2019Stabilizing Transformers for Reinforcement Learningcited by 262
- 2020Neural Rough Differential Equations for Long Time Seriescited by 140
- 2014On the relation between optimal transport and Schr"odinger bridges: A stochastic control viewpointcited by 99
- 2016Kernels for sequentially ordered datacited by 83
- 2019Deep Signature Transformscited by 75
- 2023Non-adversarial training of Neural SDEs with signature kernel scorescited by 36
- 2020Neural Jump Ordinary Differential Equations: Consistent Continuous-Time Prediction and Filteringcited by 33
5 more
- 2022Signature Methods in Machine Learningcited by 33
- 2022Optimal Estimation of Generic Dynamics by Path-Dependent Neural Jump ODEscited by 7
- 2023Extending Path-Dependent NJ-ODEs to Noisy Observations and a Dependent Observation Frameworkcited by 6
- 2025Learning with Expected Signatures: Theory and Applicationscited by 3
- 2025Neural Jump ODEs as Generative Modelscited by 3
Built on by
Not cited yet.