mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Adversarial Robustness of Deep State Space Models for Forecasting

arXiv 2604.03427 ↗First posted 3 Apr 2026cs.LG cs.SY eess.SYcited by 1

Not on the map. Why?

Abstract (arXiv)

State-space model (SSM) for time-series forecasting have demonstrated strong empirical performance on benchmark datasets, yet their robustness under adversarial perturbations is poorly understood. We address this gap through a control-theoretic lens, focusing on the recently proposed Spacetime SSM forecaster. We first establish that the decoder-only Spacetime architecture can represent the optimal Kalman predictor when the underlying data-generating process is autoregressive - a property no other SSM possesses. Building on this, we formulate robust forecaster design as a Stackelberg game against worst-case stealthy adversaries constrained by a detection budget, and solve it via adversarial training. We derive closed-form bounds on adversarial forecasting error that expose how open-loop instability, closed-loop instability, and decoder state dimension each amplify vulnerability - offering actionable principles towards robust forecaster design. Finally, we show that even adversaries with no access to the forecaster can nonetheless construct effective attacks by exploiting the model's locally linear input-output behavior, bypassing gradient computations entirely. Experiments on the Monash benchmark datasets highlight that model-free attacks, without any gradient computation, can cause at least 33% more error than projected gradient descent with a small step size.

Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 17 of its 31 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 3 Apr 2026.

Builds on

17 of 31 references.

References · 17

  1. 2017Towards Deep Learning Models Resistant to Adversarial Attackscited by 6,326
  2. 2023Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spacescited by 4,616
  3. 2021Efficiently Modeling Long Sequences with Structured State Spacescited by 2,424
  4. 2018An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modelingcited by 1,447
  5. 2022Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?cited by 1,400
  6. 2023A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecastingcited by 650
  7. 2021Monash Time Series Forecasting Archivecited by 256
  8. 2023A Survey on Graph Neural Networks for Time Series: Forecasting, Classification, Imputation, and Anomaly Detectioncited by 145
  9. 2023Effectively Modeling Time Series with Simple Discrete State Spacescited by 54
  10. 2023Can a Transformer Represent a Kalman Filter?cited by 20
  11. 2024BACKTIME: Backdoor Attacks on Multivariate Time Series Forecastingcited by 18
  12. 2022Robust Probabilistic Time Series Forecastingcited by 15
5 more
  1. 2019Adversarial Attacks on Time-Series Intrusion Detection for Industrial Control Systemscited by 7
  2. 2024Adversarial Vulnerabilities in Large Language Models for Time Series Forecastingcited by 6
  3. 2024Exploring Adversarial Robustness of Deep State Space Modelscited by 4
  4. 2024BadVim: Unveiling Backdoor Threats in Visual State Space Modelcited by 1
  5. 2025Feasibility of Randomized Detector Tuning for Attack Impact Mitigationcited by 1

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 1.

1 paper.

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2025Quantifying Robustness: A Benchmarking Framework for Deep Learning Forecasting in Cyber-Physical Systems
  2. 2024Deep Learning-based Approaches for State Space Models: A Selective Review
  3. 2026Efficient Learning of Deep State Space Models via Importance Smoothing
  4. 2025Adversarial Observations in Weather Forecasting
  5. 2026SPDM: Geometry-Modulated State Space Modeling with Manifold Constraints for Time Series Forecasting
  6. 2026A Decomposition-based State Space Model for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting
  7. 2021SSDNet: State Space Decomposition Neural Network for Time Series Forecasting
  8. 2022Interpretable Latent Variables in Deep State Space Models