mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference

arXiv 2603.27414 ↗First posted 28 Mar 2026math.ST cs.AI stat.THcited by 9

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Abstract (arXiv)

Statistical estimation often involves tradeoffs between expensive, high-quality measurements and a variety of lower-quality proxies. We introduce Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (MultiPPI): a general framework for constructing statistically efficient estimates by optimally allocating resources across these diverse data sources. This work provides theoretical guarantees about the minimax optimality, finite-sample performance, and asymptotic normality of the MultiPPI estimator. Through experiments across three diverse large language model (LLM) evaluation scenarios, we show that MultiPPI consistently achieves lower estimation error than existing baselines. This advantage stems from its budget-adaptive allocation strategy, which strategically combines subsets of models by learning their complex cost and correlation structures.

Key facts. Cited by 9 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 16 of its 29 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 28 Mar 2026.

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16 of 29 references.

References · 16

  1. 2021Convex optimizationcited by 2,479
  2. 2023Improving Factuality and Reasoning in Language Models through Multiagent Debatecited by 1,739
  3. 2024Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preferencecited by 1,151
  4. 2024ProcessBench: Identifying Process Errors in Mathematical Reasoningcited by 277
  5. 2023ARES: An Automated Evaluation Framework for Retrieval-Augmented Generation Systemscited by 259
  6. 2023Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 214
  7. 2023PPI++: Efficient Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 103
  8. 2021Active Testing: Sample-Efficient Model Evaluationcited by 82
  9. 2018The price of debiasing automatic metrics in natural language evaluationcited by 60
  10. 2024AutoEval Done Right: Using Synthetic Data for Model Evaluationcited by 53
  11. 2024Prediction-Powered Ranking of Large Language Modelscited by 29
  12. 2023Assumption-Lean and Data-Adaptive Post-Prediction Inferencecited by 25
4 more
  1. 2015Active Learning from Weak and Strong Labelerscited by 22
  2. 2024Prediction-powered Generalization of Causal Inferencescited by 14
  3. 2025Cost-Optimal Active AI Model Evaluationcited by 14
  4. 2014Adaptive Monte Carlo via Bandit Allocationcited by 2

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 9.

9 papers.