Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference
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Abstract (arXiv)
Statistical estimation often involves tradeoffs between expensive, high-quality measurements and a variety of lower-quality proxies. We introduce Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (MultiPPI): a general framework for constructing statistically efficient estimates by optimally allocating resources across these diverse data sources. This work provides theoretical guarantees about the minimax optimality, finite-sample performance, and asymptotic normality of the MultiPPI estimator. Through experiments across three diverse large language model (LLM) evaluation scenarios, we show that MultiPPI consistently achieves lower estimation error than existing baselines. This advantage stems from its budget-adaptive allocation strategy, which strategically combines subsets of models by learning their complex cost and correlation structures.
Key facts. Cited by 9 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 16 of its 29 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 28 Mar 2026.
Builds on
16 of 29 references.
References · 16
- 2021Convex optimizationcited by 2,479
- 2023Improving Factuality and Reasoning in Language Models through Multiagent Debatecited by 1,739
- 2024Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preferencecited by 1,151
- 2024ProcessBench: Identifying Process Errors in Mathematical Reasoningcited by 277
- 2023ARES: An Automated Evaluation Framework for Retrieval-Augmented Generation Systemscited by 259
- 2023Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 214
- 2023PPI++: Efficient Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 103
- 2021Active Testing: Sample-Efficient Model Evaluationcited by 82
- 2018The price of debiasing automatic metrics in natural language evaluationcited by 60
- 2024AutoEval Done Right: Using Synthetic Data for Model Evaluationcited by 53
- 2024Prediction-Powered Ranking of Large Language Modelscited by 29
- 2023Assumption-Lean and Data-Adaptive Post-Prediction Inferencecited by 25
4 more
- 2015Active Learning from Weak and Strong Labelerscited by 22
- 2024Prediction-powered Generalization of Causal Inferencescited by 14
- 2025Cost-Optimal Active AI Model Evaluationcited by 14
- 2014Adaptive Monte Carlo via Bandit Allocationcited by 2
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 9.
9 papers.
- 2026Prediction-Powered Inference Across Many Tasks for AI Evaluation & Social Science Researchcited by 3
- 2026Valid Inference with Synthetic Data via Task Exchangeabilitycited by 1
- 2026Industrializing Prediction-Powered Inference: The GLIDE Library for Reliable GenAI and Agentic Systems Evaluationcited by 0
- 2026Scalable Model-Assisted Multi-Target Estimation in Large Image Collectionscited by 0
- 2026Conditional Evaluation of Language Models with Cheap Auxiliary Signalscited by 0
- 2026Human-Anchored Factuality Evaluation with Strategic Annotationcited by 0
- 2026Augmented Hypothesis Testing with Persona-Based LLM Simulationscited by 0
- 2026Speculative Evaluation of Stochastic LLMscited by 0
- 2026OTROPE: Optimal Transport-based Robust Off-policy Evaluation for Large Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026OTROPE: Optimal Transport-based Robust Off-policy Evaluation for Large Language Models28 Sep 2026
- 2026Speculative Evaluation of Stochastic LLMs23 Sep 2026
- 2026Augmented Hypothesis Testing with Persona-Based LLM Simulations21 Sep 2026
- 2026Human-Anchored Factuality Evaluation with Strategic Annotation31 Aug 2026
- 2026Conditional Evaluation of Language Models with Cheap Auxiliary Signals17 Aug 2026
- 2026Scalable Model-Assisted Multi-Target Estimation in Large Image Collections20 Jul 2026
- 2026Valid Inference with Synthetic Data via Task Exchangeability11 Jun 2026
- 2026Industrializing Prediction-Powered Inference: The GLIDE Library for Reliable GenAI and Agentic Systems Evaluation29 May 2026
- 2026Prediction-Powered Inference Across Many Tasks for AI Evaluation & Social Science Research28 May 2026