Maximin Learning of Individualized Treatment Effect on Multi-Domain Outcomes
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Abstract (arXiv)
Precision mental health requires treatment decisions that account for heterogeneous symptoms reflecting multiple clinical domains. However, existing methods for estimating individualized treatment effects (ITE) rely on a single summary outcome or a specific set of observed symptoms or measures, which are sensitive to symptom selection and limit generalizability to unmeasured yet clinically relevant domains. We propose DRIFT, a new maximin framework for estimating robust ITEs from high-dimensional item-level data by leveraging latent factor representations and adversarial learning. DRIFT learns latent constructs via generalized factor analysis, then constructs an anchored on-target uncertainty set that extrapolates beyond the observed measures to approximate the broader hyper-population of potential outcomes. By optimizing worst-case performance over this uncertainty set, DRIFT yields ITEs that are robust to underrepresented or unmeasured domains. We further show that DRIFT is invariant to admissible reparameterizations of the latent factors and admits a closed-form maximin solution, with theoretical guarantees for identification and convergence. In analyses of a randomized controlled trial for major depressive disorder (EMBARC), DRIFT demonstrates superior performance and improved generalizability to external multi-domain outcomes, including side effects and self-reported symptoms not used during training.
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References · 15
- 2019Distributionally Robust Neural Networks for Group Shifts: On the Importance of Regularization for Worst-Case Generalizationcited by 1,232
- 2015Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forestscited by 597
- 2017Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Machine Learningcited by 475
- 2017Quasi-Oracle Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effectscited by 328
- 2015Recursive Partitioning for Heterogeneous Causal Effectscited by 254
- 2021Nonparametric Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: From Theory to Learning Algorithmscited by 144
- 2014Maximin effects in inhomogeneous large-scale datacited by 32
- 2020Statistical Inference for Maximin Effects: Identifying Stable Associations across Multiple Studiescited by 14
- 2025Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inferencecited by 9
- 2019A Note on Exploratory Item Factor Analysis by Singular Value Decompositioncited by 7
- 2024Minimax Regret Learning for Data with Heterogeneous Subgroupscited by 7
- 2017Estimation and Optimization of Composite Outcomescited by 5
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