mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Valid Feature-Level Inference for Tabular Foundation Models via the Conditional Randomization Test

arXiv 2603.06609 ↗First posted 19 Feb 2026cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Modern machine learning models are highly expressive but notoriously difficult to analyze statistically. In particular, while black-box predictors can achieve strong empirical performance, they rarely provide valid hypothesis tests or p-values for assessing whether individual features contain information about a target variable. This article presents a practical approach to feature-level hypothesis testing that combines the Conditional Randomization Test (CRT) with TabPFN, a probabilistic foundation model for tabular data. The resulting procedure yields finite-sample valid p-values for conditional feature relevance, even in nonlinear and correlated settings, without requiring model retraining or parametric assumptions.

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References · 8

  1. 2020Language Models are Few-Shot Learnerscited by 32,199
  2. 2020An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scalecited by 29,915
  3. 2017A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictionscited by 6,488
  4. 2016"Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifiercited by 5,040
  5. 2022TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Secondcited by 643
  6. 2016Panning for Gold: Model-X Knockoffs for High-dimensional Controlled Variable Selectioncited by 120
  7. 2014Controlling the false discovery rate via knockoffscited by 97
  8. 2020On the power of conditional independence testing under model-Xcited by 4

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