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Differentiable Causal Discovery for Singular Linear Models under Confounding

arXiv 2601.01368 ↗First posted 4 Jan 2026cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Score-based causal discovery in the presence of unobserved confounders requires both a consistent scoring criterion and an efficient search over graph structures. Linear causal models with correlated errors are naturally represented by acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs), whose induced model families include singular statistical models for which the standard Bayesian Information Criterion is inconsistent. We develop a score-based framework for causal discovery over linear Gaussian ADMGs grounded in singular learning theory. We first verify that the conditions for consistency of the Widely Applicable Bayesian Information Criterion (WBIC) are satisfied by the linear causal model class. We then propose a scalable approximation of the WBIC via Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI). Finally, we introduce a differentiable search over ADMGs through Gumbel-Softmax relaxations of both directed and bidirected adjacency. Experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks demonstrate improvements over the BIC-scored baseline on both singular and generic ADMGs under unobserved confounding.

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References · 8

  1. 2016The Concrete Distribution: A Continuous Relaxation of Discrete Random Variablescited by 1,135
  2. 2018DAGs with NO TEARS: Continuous Optimization for Structure Learningcited by 745
  3. 2013Causal Inference and Causal Explanation with Background Knowledgecited by 168
  4. 2013Causal Networks: Semantics and Expressivenesscited by 67
  5. 2016Structure Learning in Graphical Modelingcited by 66
  6. 2020Differentiable Causal Discovery Under Unmeasured Confoundingcited by 56
  7. 2013On the Testability of Causal Models with Latent and Instrumental Variablescited by 26
  8. 2018FASK with Interventional Knowledge Recovers Edges from the Sachs Modelcited by 13

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