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Causal Discovery with Mixed Latent Confounding via Precision Decomposition

arXiv 2512.24696 ↗First posted 31 Dec 2025cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

We study causal discovery from observational data in linear Gaussian systems affected by mixed latent confounding, where some unobserved factors act broadly across many variables while others influence only small subsets. This setting is common in practice and poses a challenge for existing methods: differentiable and score-based DAG learners can misinterpret global latent effects as causal edges, while latent-variable graphical models recover only undirected structure. We propose textscDCL-DECOR, a modular, precision-led pipeline that separates these roles. The method first isolates pervasive latent effects by decomposing the observed precision matrix into a structured component and a low-rank component. The structured component corresponds to the conditional distribution after accounting for pervasive confounders and retains only local dependence induced by the causal graph and localized confounding. A correlated-noise DAG learner is then applied to this deconfounded representation to recover directed edges while modeling remaining structured error correlations, followed by a simple reconciliation step to enforce bow-freeness. We provide identifiability results that characterize the recoverable causal target under mixed confounding and show how the overall problem reduces to well-studied subproblems with modular guarantees. Synthetic experiments that vary the strength and dimensionality of pervasive confounding demonstrate consistent improvements in directed edge recovery over applying correlated-noise DAG learning directly to the confounded data.

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References · 14

  1. 2018DAGs with NO TEARS: Continuous Optimization for Structure Learningcited by 745
  2. 2019Learning Sparse Nonparametric DAGscited by 207
  3. 2020DYNOTEARS: Structure Learning from Time-Series Datacited by 198
  4. 2020On the Role of Sparsity and DAG Constraints for Learning Linear DAGscited by 186
  5. 2022DAGMA: Learning DAGs via M-matrices and a Log-Determinant Acyclicity Characterizationcited by 135
  6. 2013High-dimensional learning of linear causal networks via inverse covariance estimationcited by 86
  7. 2020Differentiable Causal Discovery Under Unmeasured Confoundingcited by 56
  8. 2020Causal Discovery with Unobserved Confounding and non-Gaussian Datacited by 24
  9. 2017Robust causal structure learning with some hidden variablescited by 17
  10. 2021The DeCAMFounder: Non-Linear Causal Discovery in the Presence of Hidden Variablescited by 15
  11. 2024Scalable Differentiable Causal Discovery in the Presence of Latent Confounders with Skeleton Posterior (Extended Version)cited by 6
  12. 2025Penalized FCI for Causal Structure Learning in a Sparse DAG for Biomarker Discovery in Parkinson's Diseasecited by 4
2 more
  1. 2024Differentiable Causal Discovery For Latent Hierarchical Causal Modelscited by 3
  2. 2025DAG DECORation: Continuous Optimization for Structure Learning under Hidden Confoundingcited by 2

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