The Instability of Safety: How Random Seeds and Temperature Expose Inconsistent LLM Refusal Behavior

Current safety evaluations of large language models rely on single-shot testing, implicitly assuming that model responses are deterministic and representative of the model's safety alignment. We challenge this assumption by investigating the stability of safety refusal decisions across random seeds and temperature settings. Testing four instruction-tuned models from three families (Llama 3.1 8B, Qwen 2.5 7B, Qwen 3 8B, Gemma 3 12B) on 876 harmful prompts across 20 sampling configurations (4 temperatures x 5 seeds), we find that 18-28% of prompts exhibit decision flips (the REFUSE/PARTIAL/COMPLY label changes across configurations), depending on the model. Our Safety Stability Index (SSI) reveals that higher temperatures significantly reduce decision stability (Friedman chi-squared = 396.81, p < 0.001), with mean within-temperature SSI dropping from 0.977 at temperature 0.0 to 0.942 at temperature 1.0. We validate findings across all model families using Claude 3.5 Haiku as a unified external judge, achieving 89.1% inter-judge agreement with the Llama 70B judge on the two models both judges labeled (Cohen's kappa = 0.62). Within each model, prompts with higher compliance rates exhibit lower stability (Spearman rho = -0.47 to -0.70, all p < 0.001), indicating that models "waver" more on borderline requests. These findings demonstrate that single-shot safety evaluations are insufficient for reliable safety assessment and that evaluation protocols must account for stochastic variation in model behavior. For Llama 3.1 8B, single-shot evaluation agrees with multi-sample ground truth only 92.5% of the time when pooling across temperatures (98.7% at greedy to 90.3% at temperature 1.0), and we recommend scaling samples with temperature--one at greedy, three at low temperature, more at higher temperatures (where three reach only ~95%), and ten when pooling--rather than a single flat threshold.