Improving Long-term Autoregressive Spatiotemporal Predictions: A Proof of Concept with Fluid Dynamics
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Abstract (arXiv)
Data-driven methods are emerging as efficient alternatives to traditional numerical forecasting, offering fast inference and lower computational cost. Yet, for complex systems, long-term accuracy often deteriorates due to error accumulation, and autoregressive training (though effective) demands large GPU memory and may sacrifice short-term performance. We propose the Stochastic PushForward (SPF) framework, which retains one-step-ahead training while enabling multi-step learning. SPF builds a supplementary dataset from model predictions and combines it with ground truth via a stochastic acquisition strategy, balancing short- and long-term performance while reducing overfitting. Multi-step predictions are precomputed between epochs, keeping memory usage stable without storing full unrolled sequences. Experiments on the Burgers' equation and the Shallow Water benchmark show that SPF achieves higher long-term accuracy than autoregressive methods while lowering memory requirements, making it promising for resource-limited and complex simulations.
Key facts. Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 16 of its 46 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 25 Aug 2025.
Builds on
16 of 46 references.
References · 16
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4 more
- 2024Multi-fidelity physics constrained neural networks for dynamical systemscited by 5
- 2024Dynamical system prediction from sparse observations using deep neural networks with Voronoi tessellation and physics constraintcited by 5
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 4.
4 papers.
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- 2026Cost-Accuracy Trade-offs: Neural Operator vs Classical Numerical Solvercited by 0
- 2026Cost-Accuracy Trade-offs: Neural Operator vs Classical Numerical Solver21 Sep 2026
- 2026Attention mechanism for scalable mesh-based neural surrogates of free-surface fluids22 Jun 2026
- 2026Can AI Weather Models Predict Beyond Two Weeks? A Quantitative Benchmark and Analysis of Long Rollouts28 May 2026
- 2026Position: A Dynamical Systems Perspective is Needed to Advance Time Series Modeling18 Feb 2026