Geospatial Diffusion for Land Cover Imperviousness Change Forecasting

Land cover, both present and future, has a significant effect on several important Earth system processes. For example, impervious surfaces heat up and speed up surface water runoff and reduce groundwater infiltration, with concomitant effects on regional hydrology and flood risk. While regional Earth System models have increasing skill at forecasting hydrologic and atmospheric processes at high resolution in future climate scenarios, our ability to forecast land-use and land-cover change (LULC), a critical input to risk and consequences assessment for these scenarios, has lagged behind. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm exploiting Generative AI (GenAI) for land cover change forecasting by framing LULC forecasting as a data synthesis problem conditioned on historical and auxiliary data-sources. We discuss desirable properties of generative models that fundament our research premise, and demonstrate the feasibility of our methodology through experiments on imperviousness forecasting using historical data covering the entire conterminous United States. Specifically, we train a diffusion model for decadal forecasting of imperviousness and compare its performance to a baseline that assumes no change at all. Evaluation across 12 metropolitan areas for a year held-out during training indicate that for average resolutions ≥ 0.7×0.7km2 our model yields MAE lower than such a baseline. This finding corroborates that such a generative model can capture spatiotemporal patterns from historical data that are significant for projecting future change. Finally, we discuss future research to incorporate auxiliary information on physical properties about the Earth, as well as supporting simulation of different scenarios by means of driver variables.