mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Valid Selection among Conformal Sets

arXiv 2506.20173 ↗First posted 25 Jun 2025stat.ML cs.AI cs.LGcited by 4

Not on the map. Why?

Abstract (arXiv)

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies. However, selecting the most desirable set, such as the smallest, can invalidate the coverage guarantees. To address this challenge, we propose a stability-based approach that ensures coverage for the selected prediction set. We extend our results to the online conformal setting, propose several refinements in settings where additional structure is available, and demonstrate its effectiveness through experiments.

Key facts. Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 18 of its 39 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 25 Jun 2025.

Builds on

18 of 39 references.

References · 18

  1. 2021Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shiftcited by 360
  2. 2019Predictive inference with the jackknife+cited by 206
  3. 2022Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Seriescited by 155
  4. 2023Conformal Prediction With Conditional Guaranteescited by 146
  5. 2022Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shiftscited by 123
  6. 2014Preserving Statistical Validity in Adaptive Data Analysiscited by 102
  7. 2024Theoretical Foundations of Conformal Predictioncited by 96
  8. 2015Algorithmic Stability for Adaptive Data Analysiscited by 88
  9. 2023Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learningcited by 76
  10. 2013Follow the Leader If You Can, Hedge If You Mustcited by 68
  11. 2022Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-valuescited by 66
  12. 2021Selection and Aggregation of Conformal Prediction Setscited by 46
6 more
  1. 2022Achieving Risk Control in Online Learning Settingscited by 38
  2. 2024Merging uncertainty sets via majority votecited by 27
  3. 2024Conformal online model aggregationcited by 11
  4. 2024Optimized Conformal Selection: Powerful Selective Inference After Conformity Score Optimizationcited by 11
  5. 2024Multi-model Ensemble Conformal Prediction in Dynamic Environmentscited by 8
  6. 2020Post-Selection Inference via Algorithmic Stabilitycited by 7

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 1; 2026: 3.

4 papers.