Valid Selection among Conformal Sets
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Abstract (arXiv)
Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies. However, selecting the most desirable set, such as the smallest, can invalidate the coverage guarantees. To address this challenge, we propose a stability-based approach that ensures coverage for the selected prediction set. We extend our results to the online conformal setting, propose several refinements in settings where additional structure is available, and demonstrate its effectiveness through experiments.
Key facts. Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 18 of its 39 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 25 Jun 2025.
Builds on
18 of 39 references.
References · 18
- 2021Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shiftcited by 360
- 2019Predictive inference with the jackknife+cited by 206
- 2022Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Seriescited by 155
- 2023Conformal Prediction With Conditional Guaranteescited by 146
- 2022Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shiftscited by 123
- 2014Preserving Statistical Validity in Adaptive Data Analysiscited by 102
- 2024Theoretical Foundations of Conformal Predictioncited by 96
- 2015Algorithmic Stability for Adaptive Data Analysiscited by 88
- 2023Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learningcited by 76
- 2013Follow the Leader If You Can, Hedge If You Mustcited by 68
- 2022Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-valuescited by 66
- 2021Selection and Aggregation of Conformal Prediction Setscited by 46
6 more
- 2022Achieving Risk Control in Online Learning Settingscited by 38
- 2024Merging uncertainty sets via majority votecited by 27
- 2024Conformal online model aggregationcited by 11
- 2024Optimized Conformal Selection: Powerful Selective Inference After Conformity Score Optimizationcited by 11
- 2024Multi-model Ensemble Conformal Prediction in Dynamic Environmentscited by 8
- 2020Post-Selection Inference via Algorithmic Stabilitycited by 7
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2025: 1; 2026: 3.
4 papers.
- 2025Calibrating Decision Robustness via Inverse Conformal Risk Controlcited by 4
- 2026CAOS: Conformal Aggregation of One-Shot Predictorscited by 1
- 2026Learning Polyhedral Conformal Sets for Robust Optimizationcited by 1
- 2026Conformal Risk Sharing: Certified Cost Allocation with Participation Guaranteescited by 0
- 2026Conformal Risk Sharing: Certified Cost Allocation with Participation Guarantees4 Jun 2026
- 2026Learning Polyhedral Conformal Sets for Robust Optimization8 May 2026
- 2026CAOS: Conformal Aggregation of One-Shot Predictors8 Jan 2026
- 2025Calibrating Decision Robustness via Inverse Conformal Risk Control9 Oct 2025