Data-Driven Heat Pump Management: Combining Machine Learning with Anomaly Detection for Residential Hot Water Systems

Heat pumps (HPs) have emerged as a cost-effective and clean technology for sustainable energy systems, but their efficiency in producing hot water remains restricted by conventional threshold-based control methods. Although machine learning (ML) has been successfully implemented for various HP applications, optimization of household hot water demand forecasting remains understudied. This paper addresses this problem by introducing a novel approach that combines predictive ML with anomaly detection to create adaptive hot water production strategies based on household-specific consumption patterns. Our key contributions include: (1) a composite approach combining ML and isolation forest (iForest) to forecast household demand for hot water and steer responsive HP operations; (2) multi-step feature selection with advanced time-series analysis to capture complex usage patterns; (3) application and tuning of three ML models: Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Bi-directional LSTM with the self-attention mechanism on data from different types of real HP installations; and (4) experimental validation on six real household installations. Our experiments show that the best-performing model LightGBM achieves superior performance, with RMSE improvements of up to 9.37% compared to LSTM variants with R2 values between 0.748-0.983. For anomaly detection, our iForest implementation achieved an F1-score of 0.87 with a false alarm rate of only 5.2%, demonstrating strong generalization capabilities across different household types and consumption patterns, making it suitable for real-world HP deployments.