mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Query-Level Uncertainty in Large Language Models

arXiv 2506.09669 ↗First posted 11 Jun 2025cs.CLcited by 14

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Abstract (arXiv)

It is important for Large Language Models (LLMs) to be aware of the boundary of their knowledge, distinguishing queries they can confidently answer from those that lie beyond their capabilities. Such awareness enables models to perform adaptive inference, such as invoking retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), engaging in slow and deep thinking, or abstaining from answering when appropriate. These mechanisms are key to developing efficient and trustworthy AI. In this work, we propose a method to detect knowledge boundaries via Query-Level Uncertainty, which estimates if a model is capable of answering a given query before generating any tokens, thus avoiding the generation cost. To this end, we propose a novel, training-free method called Internal Confidence, which leverages self-evaluations across layers and tokens to provide a reliable signal of uncertainty. Empirical studies on both factual question answering and mathematical reasoning tasks demonstrate that our Internal Confidence outperforms several baselines in quality of confidence while being computationally cheaper. Furthermore, we demonstrate its benefits in adaptive inference settings, showing that for RAG and model cascading it reduces inference costs while preserving overall performance.

Key facts. Cited by 14 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 64 of its 75 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 11 Jun 2025.

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64 of 75 references.

References · 64

  1. 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,715
  2. 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 10,109
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  9. 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,856
  10. 2016Understanding intermediate layers using linear classifier probescited by 1,353
  11. 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 974
  12. 2021MuSiQue: Multihop Questions via Single-hop Question Compositioncited by 916
38 more
  1. 2019Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methodscited by 913
  2. 2023Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generationcited by 819
  3. 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 812
  4. 2023SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Modelscited by 810
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  6. 2017Crowdsourcing Multiple Choice Science Questionscited by 765
  7. 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 659
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  9. 2024Adaptive-RAG: Learning to Adapt Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models through Question Complexitycited by 451
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  11. 2023DoLa: Decoding by Contrasting Layers Improves Factuality in Large Language Modelscited by 376
  12. 2024Measuring short-form factuality in large language modelscited by 373
  13. 2024INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detectioncited by 323
  14. 2023Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Modelscited by 293
  15. 2024Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMscited by 259
  16. 2023A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 256
  17. 2025A Survey on Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models: What, How, Where, and How Well?cited by 223
  18. 2020Unsupervised Quality Estimation for Neural Machine Translationcited by 211
  19. 2020Mix-n-Match: Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learningcited by 190
  20. 2024Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 162
  21. 2023Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Modelscited by 150
  22. 2023Investigating the Factual Knowledge Boundary of Large Language Models with Retrieval Augmentationcited by 147
  23. 2024Language Model Cascades: Token-level uncertainty and beyondcited by 121
  24. 2024Know Your Limits: A Survey of Abstention in Large Language Modelscited by 121
  25. 2024A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directionscited by 121
  26. 2024The Good, The Bad, and The Greedy: Evaluation of LLMs Should Not Ignore Non-Determinismcited by 116
  27. 2023R-Tuning: Instructing Large Language Models to Say `I Don't Know'cited by 111
  28. 2022Language Model Cascadescited by 107
  29. 2024Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraphcited by 105
  30. 2024Large Language Models Must Be Taught to Know What They Don't Knowcited by 100
  31. 2024Benchmarking Uncertainty Disentanglement: Specialized Uncertainties for Specialized Taskscited by 78
  32. 2024DRAGIN: Dynamic Retrieval Augmented Generation based on the Information Needs of Large Language Modelscited by 63
  33. 2023Knowledge of Knowledge: Exploring Known-Unknowns Uncertainty with Large Language Modelscited by 61
  34. 2024Factual Confidence of LLMs: on Reliability and Robustness of Current Estimatorscited by 61
  35. 2023The Curious Case of Hallucinatory (Un)answerability: Finding Truths in the Hidden States of Over-Confident Large Language Modelscited by 55
  36. 2024Uncertainty-Based Abstention in LLMs Improves Safety and Reduces Hallucinationscited by 54
  37. 2024Calibrating the Confidence of Large Language Models by Eliciting Fidelitycited by 47
  38. 2024What is the Role of Small Models in the LLM Era: A Surveycited by 41

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  1. 2026Interpretable Uncertainty for Adaptive Retrieval and Reasoning in Question Answering
  2. 2026Beyond Self-Knowledge: Propagating Uncertainty Across Reasoning and Retrieval in LLMs
  3. 2026URAG: A Benchmark for Uncertainty Quantification in Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models
  4. 2025QuCo-RAG: Quantifying Uncertainty from the Pre-training Corpus for Dynamic Retrieval-Augmented Generation
  5. 2026AB-RAG: Adaptive Budgeted Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Reliable Question Answering
  6. 2024CtrlA: Adaptive Retrieval-Augmented Generation via Inherent Control
  7. 2024KBM: Delineating Knowledge Boundary for Adaptive Retrieval in Large Language Models
  8. 2026Towards Dependable Retrieval-Augmented Generation Using Factual Confidence Prediction