Query-Level Uncertainty in Large Language Models
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Abstract (arXiv)
It is important for Large Language Models (LLMs) to be aware of the boundary of their knowledge, distinguishing queries they can confidently answer from those that lie beyond their capabilities. Such awareness enables models to perform adaptive inference, such as invoking retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), engaging in slow and deep thinking, or abstaining from answering when appropriate. These mechanisms are key to developing efficient and trustworthy AI. In this work, we propose a method to detect knowledge boundaries via Query-Level Uncertainty, which estimates if a model is capable of answering a given query before generating any tokens, thus avoiding the generation cost. To this end, we propose a novel, training-free method called Internal Confidence, which leverages self-evaluations across layers and tokens to provide a reliable signal of uncertainty. Empirical studies on both factual question answering and mathematical reasoning tasks demonstrate that our Internal Confidence outperforms several baselines in quality of confidence while being computationally cheaper. Furthermore, we demonstrate its benefits in adaptive inference settings, showing that for RAG and model cascading it reduces inference costs while preserving overall performance.
Key facts. Cited by 14 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 64 of its 75 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 11 Jun 2025.
Builds on
64 of 75 references.
References · 64
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- 2020Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Taskscited by 9,297
- 2023Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Toolscited by 4,182
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- 2021MuSiQue: Multihop Questions via Single-hop Question Compositioncited by 916
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- 2019Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methodscited by 913
- 2023Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generationcited by 819
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- 2023SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Modelscited by 810
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- 2017Crowdsourcing Multiple Choice Science Questionscited by 765
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- 2023Active Retrieval Augmented Generationcited by 516
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- 2023DoLa: Decoding by Contrasting Layers Improves Factuality in Large Language Modelscited by 376
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- 2024INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detectioncited by 323
- 2023Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Modelscited by 293
- 2024Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMscited by 259
- 2023A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 256
- 2025A Survey on Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models: What, How, Where, and How Well?cited by 223
- 2020Unsupervised Quality Estimation for Neural Machine Translationcited by 211
- 2020Mix-n-Match: Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learningcited by 190
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- 2023Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Modelscited by 150
- 2023Investigating the Factual Knowledge Boundary of Large Language Models with Retrieval Augmentationcited by 147
- 2024Language Model Cascades: Token-level uncertainty and beyondcited by 121
- 2024Know Your Limits: A Survey of Abstention in Large Language Modelscited by 121
- 2024A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directionscited by 121
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- 2022Language Model Cascadescited by 107
- 2024Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraphcited by 105
- 2024Large Language Models Must Be Taught to Know What They Don't Knowcited by 100
- 2024Benchmarking Uncertainty Disentanglement: Specialized Uncertainties for Specialized Taskscited by 78
- 2024DRAGIN: Dynamic Retrieval Augmented Generation based on the Information Needs of Large Language Modelscited by 63
- 2023Knowledge of Knowledge: Exploring Known-Unknowns Uncertainty with Large Language Modelscited by 61
- 2024Factual Confidence of LLMs: on Reliability and Robustness of Current Estimatorscited by 61
- 2023The Curious Case of Hallucinatory (Un)answerability: Finding Truths in the Hidden States of Over-Confident Large Language Modelscited by 55
- 2024Uncertainty-Based Abstention in LLMs Improves Safety and Reduces Hallucinationscited by 54
- 2024Calibrating the Confidence of Large Language Models by Eliciting Fidelitycited by 47
- 2024What is the Role of Small Models in the LLM Era: A Surveycited by 41
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- 2026Trust or Abstain? A Self-Aware RAG Approach11 May 2026
- 2026To Call or Not to Call: A Framework to Assess and Optimize LLM Tool Calling1 May 2026
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- 2026Trust or Abstain? A Self-Aware RAG Approach11 May 2026
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- 2026Metacognition in LLMs: Foundations, Progress, and Opportunitiescited by 1
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- 2026Epistemic Uncertainty Is Not the Reducible Kindcited by 0
- 2026Evaluating LLM Uncertainty in Long-Form Generation Using Deterministic Ground Truthcited by 0
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- 2026Metacognition in LLMs: Foundations, Progress, and Opportunities13 Jul 2026
- 2026Two Axes of LLM Abstention: Answer Correctness and Question Answerability9 Jul 2026
- 2026Evaluating LLM Uncertainty in Long-Form Generation Using Deterministic Ground Truth4 Jul 2026
- 2026Epistemic Uncertainty Is Not the Reducible Kind10 Jun 2026
- 2026Capability Self-Assessment in Large Language Models29 May 2026
- 2026How Do Uncertainty Estimators Align with Hallucination Occurrence in LLMs?26 May 2026
- 2026GRADE: Probing Knowledge Gaps in LLMs through Gradient Subspace Dynamics3 Apr 2026
- 2026On Calibration of Large Language Models: From Response To Capability14 Feb 2026
- 2025Semantic Energy: Detecting LLM Hallucination Beyond Entropy20 Aug 2025
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