mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Position: Stop Chasing the C-index when Evaluating Survival Analysis Models

arXiv 2506.02075 ↗First posted 2 Jun 2025stat.ME cs.LGcited by 7

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Abstract (arXiv)

The current state of evaluation in survival analysis is plagued by the persistent use of evaluation metrics in ways that are misaligned with the stated modeling objective. In addition, many such evaluations are based on censoring assumptions that are left implicit or unjustified. This means that the reported performance can be misleading and may fail to answer the scientific or modeling question the evaluation was intended to address. In this position paper, we critically examine evaluation practices in survival analysis and highlight how censoring makes evaluation fundamentally different from standard regression or classification. We place particular focus on concordance-based measures, such as the C-index, which we show are heavily overused in the literature. To help identify appropriate metrics, we propose a set of key desiderata and introduce a double-helix ladder, in which valid evaluation requires alignment between metric and modeling assumptions. Through controlled experiments, we show that violations of this alignment can lead to misleading model comparisons. We conclude by providing practical guidance on how to evaluate a survival model.

Key facts. Cited by 7 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 40 of its 147 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 2 Jun 2025.

Builds on

40 of 147 references.

References · 40

  1. 2016DeepSurv: Personalized Treatment Recommender System Using A Cox Proportional Hazards Deep Neural Networkcited by 358
  2. 2019Time-to-Event Prediction with Neural Networks and Cox Regressioncited by 175
  3. 2023MOTOR: A Time-To-Event Foundation Model For Structured Medical Recordscited by 78
  4. 2018Effective Ways to Build and Evaluate Individual Survival Distributionscited by 64
  5. 2024Multimodal Prototyping for cancer survival predictioncited by 47
  6. 2021Survival Regression with Proper Scoring Rules and Monotonic Neural Networkscited by 42
  7. 2023SurvivalGAN: Generating Time-to-Event Data for Survival Analysiscited by 17
  8. 2023An Effective Meaningful Way to Evaluate Survival Modelscited by 15
  9. 2024Fairness in Survival Analysis with Distributionally Robust Optimizationcited by 14
  10. 2024Cohort-Individual Cooperative Learning for Multimodal Cancer Survival Analysiscited by 13
  11. 2023Copula-Based Deep Survival Models for Dependent Censoringcited by 12
  12. 2024Conformalized Survival Distributions: A Generic Post-Process to Increase Calibrationcited by 10
28 more
  1. 2025Orthogonal Survival Learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects from Time-to-Event Datacited by 10
  2. 2022Survival Kernets: Scalable and Interpretable Deep Kernel Survival Analysis with an Accuracy Guaranteecited by 9
  3. 2022Survival Mixture Density Networkscited by 9
  4. 2021Inverse-Weighted Survival Gamescited by 8
  5. 2023Federated Survival Forestscited by 8
  6. 2023Deep Copula-Based Survival Analysis for Dependent Censoring with Identifiability Guaranteescited by 8
  7. 2023Interpretable machine learning for time-to-event prediction in medicine and healthcarecited by 7
  8. 2024Dynamical Survival Analysis with Controlled Latent Statescited by 7
  9. 2024HACSurv: A Hierarchical Copula-Based Approach for Survival Analysis with Dependent Competing Riskscited by 7
  10. 2023Neural Frailty Machine: Beyond proportional hazard assumption in neural survival regressionscited by 6
  11. 2023Interpretable Survival Analysis for Heart Failure Risk Predictioncited by 6
  12. 2024Survival Models: Proper Scoring Rule and Stochastic Optimization with Competing Riskscited by 6
  13. 2022Proximal Survival Analysis to Handle Dependent Right Censoringcited by 5
  14. 2023Understanding the Impact of Competing Events on Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation from Time-to-Event Datacited by 5
  15. 2024An evidential time-to-event prediction model based on Gaussian random fuzzy numberscited by 5
  16. 2024Toward Conditional Distribution Calibration in Survival Predictioncited by 5
  17. 2025NeuralSurv: Deep Survival Analysis with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 5
  18. 2023Transformer-based Time-to-Event Prediction for Chronic Kidney Disease Deteriorationcited by 4
  19. 2023SAVAE: Leveraging the variational Bayes autoencoder for survival analysiscited by 4
  20. 2024Efficient Training of Probabilistic Neural Networks for Survival Analysiscited by 4
  21. 2024Toward a Well-Calibrated Discrimination via Survival Outcome-Aware Contrastive Learningcited by 4
  22. 2025Ensemble Survival Analysis for Preclinical Cognitive Decline Prediction in Alzheimer's Disease Using Longitudinal Biomarkerscited by 4
  23. 2023Deep Clustering Survival Machines with Interpretable Expert Distributionscited by 3
  24. 2023Using Geographic Location-based Public Health Features in Survival Analysiscited by 3
  25. 2024Adaptive Transformer Modelling of Density Function for Nonparametric Survival Analysiscited by 3
  26. 2024MENSA: A Multi-Event Network for Survival Analysis with Trajectory-based Likelihood Estimationcited by 3
  27. 2025Beyond Cox Models: Assessing the Performance of Machine-Learning Methods in Non-Proportional Hazards and Non-Linear Survival Analysiscited by 3
  28. 2025Overcoming Dependent Censoring in the Evaluation of Survival Modelscited by 2

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 1; 2026: 6.

7 papers.