mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

TimeGraph: Synthetic Benchmark Datasets for Robust Time-Series Causal Discovery

arXiv 2506.01361 ↗First posted 2 Jun 2025cs.LG cs.IR stat.MLcited by 10

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Abstract (arXiv)

Robust causal discovery in time series datasets depends on reliable benchmark datasets with known ground-truth causal relationships. However, such datasets remain scarce, and existing synthetic alternatives often overlook critical temporal properties inherent in real-world data, including nonstationarity driven by trends and seasonality, irregular sampling intervals, and the presence of unobserved confounders. To address these challenges, we introduce TimeGraph, a comprehensive suite of synthetic time-series benchmark datasets that systematically incorporates both linear and nonlinear dependencies while modeling key temporal characteristics such as trends, seasonal effects, and heterogeneous noise patterns. Each dataset is accompanied by a fully specified causal graph featuring varying densities and diverse noise distributions and is provided in two versions: one including unobserved confounders and one without, thereby offering extensive coverage of real-world complexity while preserving methodological neutrality. We further demonstrate the utility of TimeGraph through systematic evaluations of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms including PCMCI+, LPCMCI, and FGES across a diverse array of configurations and metrics. Our experiments reveal significant variations in algorithmic performance under realistic temporal conditions, underscoring the need for robust synthetic benchmarks in the fair and transparent assessment of causal discovery methods. The complete TimeGraph suite, including dataset generation scripts, evaluation metrics, and recommended experimental protocols, is freely available to facilitate reproducible research and foster community-driven advancements in time-series causal discovery.

Key facts. Cited by 10 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 12 of its 57 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 2 Jun 2025.

Builds on

12 of 57 references.

References · 12

  1. 2017Detecting causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasetscited by 244
  2. 2019Causal Discovery from Heterogeneous/Nonstationary Data with Independent Changescited by 166
  3. 2020Discovering contemporaneous and lagged causal relations in autocorrelated nonlinear time series datasetscited by 137
  4. 2020CausalWorld: A Robotic Manipulation Benchmark for Causal Structure and Transfer Learningcited by 109
  5. 2020High-recall causal discovery for autocorrelated time series with latent confounderscited by 84
  6. 2018Causal Discovery in the Presence of Missing Datacited by 47
  7. 2023Causal Discovery from Temporal Data: An Overview and New Perspectivescited by 43
  8. 2017A Review of Self-Exciting Spatio-Temporal Point Processes and Their Applicationscited by 40
  9. 2023CausalTime: Realistically Generated Time-series for Benchmarking of Causal Discoverycited by 36
  10. 2023Estimating Treatment Effects from Irregular Time Series Observations with Hidden Confounderscited by 17
  11. 2020Structural Causal Model with Expert Augmented Knowledge to Estimate the Effect of Oxygen Therapy on Mortality in the ICUcited by 5
  12. 2025Correlation to Causation: A Causal Deep Learning Framework for Arctic Sea Ice Predictioncited by 4

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 2; 2026: 8.

10 papers.