Empirical Validation of the Independent Chip Model

The independent chip model (ICM) forms a cornerstone of all modern poker tournament strategy. However, despite its prominence, the ICM's performance in the real world has not been sufficiently scrutinized, especially at a large scale. In this paper, we introduce our new dataset of poker tournaments, consisting of results of over ten thousand events. Then, using this dataset, we perform two experiments as part of a large-scale empirical validation of the ICM. First, we verify that the ICM performs more accurately than a baseline we propose. Second, we obtain empirical evidence of the ICM underestimating the performances of players with larger stacks while overestimating those who are short-stacked. Our contributions may be useful to future researchers developing new algorithms for estimating a player's value in poker tournaments.