Synthetic Time Series Forecasting with Transformer Architectures: Extensive Simulation Benchmarks
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Time series forecasting plays a critical role in domains such as energy, finance, and healthcare, where accurate predictions inform decision-making under uncertainty. Although Transformer-based models have demonstrated success in sequential modeling, their adoption for time series remains limited by challenges such as noise sensitivity, long-range dependencies, and a lack of inductive bias for temporal structure. In this work, we present a unified and principled framework for benchmarking three prominent Transformer forecasting architectures-Autoformer, Informer, and Patchtst-each evaluated through three architectural variants: Minimal, Standard, and Full, representing increasing levels of complexity and modeling capacity. We conduct over 1500 controlled experiments on a suite of ten synthetic signals, spanning five patch lengths and five forecast horizons under both clean and noisy conditions. Our analysis reveals consistent patterns across model families. To advance this landscape further, we introduce the Koopman-enhanced Transformer framework, Deep Koopformer, which integrates operator-theoretic latent state modeling to improve stability and interpretability. We demonstrate its efficacy on nonlinear and chaotic dynamical systems. Our results highlight Koopman based Transformer as a promising hybrid approach for robust, interpretable, and theoretically grounded time series forecasting in noisy and complex real-world conditions.
Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 24 of its 33 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 26 May 2025.
Builds on
24 of 33 references.
References · 24
- 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 60,361
- 2020An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scalecited by 30,186
- 2020wav2vec 2.0: A Framework for Self-Supervised Learning of Speech Representationscited by 3,905
- 2020Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecastingcited by 2,169
- 2022A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformerscited by 2,039
- 2021Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecastingcited by 1,676
- 2022Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?cited by 1,424
- 2022FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecastingcited by 1,210
- 2021Transformers in Vision: A Surveycited by 1,013
- 2022Transformers in Time Series: A Surveycited by 497
- 2017Deep learning for universal linear embeddings of nonlinear dynamicscited by 494
- 2020Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Surveycited by 459
12 more
- 2019A Comparative Study on Transformer vs RNN in Speech Applicationscited by 211
- 2017Learning Koopman Invariant Subspaces for Dynamic Mode Decompositioncited by 158
- 2021AMMUS : A Survey of Transformer-based Pretrained Models in Natural Language Processingcited by 131
- 2017Learning Deep Neural Network Representations for Koopman Operators of Nonlinear Dynamical Systemscited by 127
- 2020Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Tutorial and Literature Surveycited by 117
- 2021Long-Short Transformer: Efficient Transformers for Language and Visioncited by 102
- 2021A Practical Survey on Faster and Lighter Transformerscited by 73
- 2021An Experimental Review on Deep Learning Architectures for Time Series Forecastingcited by 47
- 2020Dissipative Deep Neural Dynamical Systemscited by 12
- 2021Constrained Block Nonlinear Neural Dynamical Modelscited by 9
- 2024Climate Aware Deep Neural Networks (CADNN) for Wind Power Simulationcited by 5
- 2021On the Stochastic Stability of Deep Markov Modelscited by 4
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2025: 2.
2 papers.