mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Uncertainty Quantification for Language Models: A Suite of Black-Box, White-Box, LLM Judge, and Ensemble Scorers

arXiv 2504.19254 ↗First posted 27 Apr 2025cs.CL cs.AI cs.LGcited by 18

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Abstract (arXiv)

Hallucinations are a persistent problem with Large Language Models (LLMs). As these models become increasingly used in high-stakes domains, such as healthcare and finance, the need for effective hallucination detection is crucial. To this end, we outline a versatile framework for closed-book hallucination detection that practitioners can apply to real-world use cases. To achieve this, we adapt a variety of existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques, including black-box UQ, white-box UQ, and LLM-as-a-Judge, transforming them as necessary into standardized response-level confidence scores ranging from 0 to 1. To enhance flexibility, we propose a tunable ensemble approach that incorporates any combination of the individual confidence scores. This approach enables practitioners to optimize the ensemble for a specific use case for improved performance. To streamline implementation, the full suite of scorers is offered in this paper's companion Python toolkit, UQLM. To evaluate the performance of the various scorers, we conduct an extensive set of experiments using several LLM question-answering benchmarks. We find that our tunable ensemble typically surpasses its individual components and outperforms existing hallucination detection methods. Our results demonstrate the benefits of customized hallucination detection strategies for improving the accuracy and reliability of LLMs.

Key facts. Cited by 18 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 47 of its 62 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 27 Apr 2025.

Builds on

47 of 62 references.

References · 47

  1. 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 10,109
  2. 2019Sentence-BERT: Sentence Embeddings using Siamese BERT-Networkscited by 9,170
  3. 2022Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Modelscited by 5,708
  4. 2019BERTScore: Evaluating Text Generation with BERTcited by 5,512
  5. 2018Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challengecited by 4,886
  6. 2019Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Frameworkcited by 2,501
  7. 2023A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questionscited by 1,601
  8. 2024A Survey on LLM-as-a-Judgecited by 1,423
  9. 2020BLEURT: Learning Robust Metrics for Text Generationcited by 1,203
  10. 2022When Not to Trust Language Models: Investigating Effectiveness of Parametric and Non-Parametric Memoriescited by 1,128
  11. 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 974
  12. 2021Are NLP Models really able to Solve Simple Math Word Problems?cited by 878
35 more
  1. 2023Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generationcited by 819
  2. 2023SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Modelscited by 810
  3. 2023Large Language Modelscited by 780
  4. 2021BARTScore: Evaluating Generated Text as Text Generationcited by 722
  5. 2019Latent Retrieval for Weakly Supervised Open Domain Question Answeringcited by 695
  6. 2023DecodingTrust: A Comprehensive Assessment of Trustworthiness in GPT Modelscited by 518
  7. 2024A Survey on Hallucination in Large Vision-Language Modelscited by 357
  8. 2024Replacing Judges with Juries: Evaluating LLM Generations with a Panel of Diverse Modelscited by 326
  9. 2023Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Modelscited by 293
  10. 2024A Comprehensive Survey of Hallucination Mitigation Techniques in Large Language Modelscited by 269
  11. 2024Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMscited by 259
  12. 2023A Stitch in Time Saves Nine: Detecting and Mitigating Hallucinations of LLMs by Validating Low-Confidence Generationcited by 206
  13. 2023Benchmarking Foundation Models with Language-Model-as-an-Examinercited by 172
  14. 2023Generative Judge for Evaluating Alignmentcited by 169
  15. 2024Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 162
  16. 2023LM vs LM: Detecting Factual Errors via Cross Examinationcited by 156
  17. 2024LLaVA-Critic: Learning to Evaluate Multimodal Modelscited by 134
  18. 2023Quantifying Uncertainty in Answers from any Language Model and Enhancing their Trustworthinesscited by 122
  19. 2024A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directionscited by 121
  20. 2023Do Language Models Know When They're Hallucinating References?cited by 116
  21. 2022CommonsenseQA 2.0: Exposing the Limits of AI through Gamificationcited by 109
  22. 2024Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraphcited by 105
  23. 2023Enhancing Uncertainty-Based Hallucination Detection with Stronger Focuscited by 99
  24. 2024LUQ: Long-text Uncertainty Quantification for LLMscited by 81
  25. 2023Self-Evaluation Improves Selective Generation in Large Language Modelscited by 76
  26. 2022Mutual Information Alleviates Hallucinations in Abstractive Summarizationcited by 68
  27. 2023Selectively Answering Ambiguous Questionscited by 66
  28. 2022Looking for a Needle in a Haystack: A Comprehensive Study of Hallucinations in Neural Machine Translationcited by 61
  29. 2024MARS: Meaning-Aware Response Scoring for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMscited by 46
  30. 2024Uncertainty Quantification for In-Context Learning of Large Language Modelscited by 45
  31. 2025Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs through Minimum Bayes Risk: Bridging Confidence and Consistencycited by 30
  32. 2023Zero-Resource Hallucination Prevention for Large Language Modelscited by 19
  33. 2024Graph-based Uncertainty Metrics for Long-form Language Model Outputscited by 11
  34. 2024A Multi-Aspect Framework for Counter Narrative Evaluation using Large Language Modelscited by 6
  35. 2024SLPL SHROOM at SemEval2024 Task 06: A comprehensive study on models ability to detect hallucinationcited by 1

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 3; 2026: 15.

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  1. 2025UQLM: A Python Package for Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Modelscited by 9
  2. 2025QA-Dragon: Query-Aware Dynamic RAG System for Knowledge-Intensive Visual Question Answeringcited by 6
  3. 2026Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilitiescited by 5
  4. 2026Fine-Grained Uncertainty Quantification for Long-Form Language Model Outputs: A Comparative Studycited by 4
  5. 2026Is Escalation Worth It? On the Depth of LLM Cascadescited by 4
  6. 2026Functional Entropy: Predicting Functional Correctness in LLM-Generated Code with Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 3
  7. 2026Entropy Sentinel: Probing Entropy Traces for LLM Monitoringcited by 2
  8. 2026A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Modelscited by 2
  9. 2026Two Pathways to Truthfulness: On the Intrinsic Encoding of LLM Hallucinationscited by 1
  10. 2026Zero-Shot Confidence Estimation for Small LLMs: When Supervised Baselines Aren't Worth Trainingcited by 1
  11. 2026Hallucination Mitigation with Agentic AI, Nested Learning, and AI Sustainability via Semantic Cachingcited by 1
  12. 2026Beyond Single-Turn Confidence: Trajectory-Adapted Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agentscited by 1
6 more
  1. 2025Echo-CoPilot: A Multiple-Perspective Agentic Framework for Reliable Echocardiography Interpretationcited by 0
  2. 2026DECK: A Consistency x Confidence Taxonomy of LLM Hallucinationscited by 0
  3. 2026When Do Supervised UQ Ensembles Improve LLM Hallucination Detection? A Robustness Studycited by 0
  4. 2026Certified Against Which Oracle? Execution Labels Set the Reported Risk of Conformal Abstention for Text-to-SQLcited by 0
  5. 2026Conformal Prediction with Paraphrase-Aware Scoring for LLM Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 0
  6. 2026One-Sided Verification Under Limited Expert Reviewcited by 0