Uncertainty Quantification for Language Models: A Suite of Black-Box, White-Box, LLM Judge, and Ensemble Scorers
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Abstract (arXiv)
Hallucinations are a persistent problem with Large Language Models (LLMs). As these models become increasingly used in high-stakes domains, such as healthcare and finance, the need for effective hallucination detection is crucial. To this end, we outline a versatile framework for closed-book hallucination detection that practitioners can apply to real-world use cases. To achieve this, we adapt a variety of existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques, including black-box UQ, white-box UQ, and LLM-as-a-Judge, transforming them as necessary into standardized response-level confidence scores ranging from 0 to 1. To enhance flexibility, we propose a tunable ensemble approach that incorporates any combination of the individual confidence scores. This approach enables practitioners to optimize the ensemble for a specific use case for improved performance. To streamline implementation, the full suite of scorers is offered in this paper's companion Python toolkit, UQLM. To evaluate the performance of the various scorers, we conduct an extensive set of experiments using several LLM question-answering benchmarks. We find that our tunable ensemble typically surpasses its individual components and outperforms existing hallucination detection methods. Our results demonstrate the benefits of customized hallucination detection strategies for improving the accuracy and reliability of LLMs.
Key facts. Cited by 18 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 47 of its 62 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 27 Apr 2025.
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47 of 62 references.
References · 47
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- 2023A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questionscited by 1,601
- 2024A Survey on LLM-as-a-Judgecited by 1,423
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- 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 974
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- 2023Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generationcited by 819
- 2023SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Modelscited by 810
- 2023Large Language Modelscited by 780
- 2021BARTScore: Evaluating Generated Text as Text Generationcited by 722
- 2019Latent Retrieval for Weakly Supervised Open Domain Question Answeringcited by 695
- 2023DecodingTrust: A Comprehensive Assessment of Trustworthiness in GPT Modelscited by 518
- 2024A Survey on Hallucination in Large Vision-Language Modelscited by 357
- 2024Replacing Judges with Juries: Evaluating LLM Generations with a Panel of Diverse Modelscited by 326
- 2023Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Modelscited by 293
- 2024A Comprehensive Survey of Hallucination Mitigation Techniques in Large Language Modelscited by 269
- 2024Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMscited by 259
- 2023A Stitch in Time Saves Nine: Detecting and Mitigating Hallucinations of LLMs by Validating Low-Confidence Generationcited by 206
- 2023Benchmarking Foundation Models with Language-Model-as-an-Examinercited by 172
- 2023Generative Judge for Evaluating Alignmentcited by 169
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- 2024A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directionscited by 121
- 2023Do Language Models Know When They're Hallucinating References?cited by 116
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- 2023Enhancing Uncertainty-Based Hallucination Detection with Stronger Focuscited by 99
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- 2024SLPL SHROOM at SemEval2024 Task 06: A comprehensive study on models ability to detect hallucinationcited by 1
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 3; 2026: 15.
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- 2025UQLM: A Python Package for Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Modelscited by 9
- 2025QA-Dragon: Query-Aware Dynamic RAG System for Knowledge-Intensive Visual Question Answeringcited by 6
- 2026Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilitiescited by 5
- 2026Fine-Grained Uncertainty Quantification for Long-Form Language Model Outputs: A Comparative Studycited by 4
- 2026Is Escalation Worth It? On the Depth of LLM Cascadescited by 4
- 2026Functional Entropy: Predicting Functional Correctness in LLM-Generated Code with Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 3
- 2026Entropy Sentinel: Probing Entropy Traces for LLM Monitoringcited by 2
- 2026A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Modelscited by 2
- 2026Two Pathways to Truthfulness: On the Intrinsic Encoding of LLM Hallucinationscited by 1
- 2026Zero-Shot Confidence Estimation for Small LLMs: When Supervised Baselines Aren't Worth Trainingcited by 1
- 2026Hallucination Mitigation with Agentic AI, Nested Learning, and AI Sustainability via Semantic Cachingcited by 1
- 2026Beyond Single-Turn Confidence: Trajectory-Adapted Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agentscited by 1
6 more
- 2025Echo-CoPilot: A Multiple-Perspective Agentic Framework for Reliable Echocardiography Interpretationcited by 0
- 2026DECK: A Consistency x Confidence Taxonomy of LLM Hallucinationscited by 0
- 2026When Do Supervised UQ Ensembles Improve LLM Hallucination Detection? A Robustness Studycited by 0
- 2026Certified Against Which Oracle? Execution Labels Set the Reported Risk of Conformal Abstention for Text-to-SQLcited by 0
- 2026Conformal Prediction with Paraphrase-Aware Scoring for LLM Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 0
- 2026One-Sided Verification Under Limited Expert Reviewcited by 0
- 2026One-Sided Verification Under Limited Expert Review13 Oct 2026
- 2026Conformal Prediction with Paraphrase-Aware Scoring for LLM Uncertainty Quantification3 Oct 2026
- 2026Certified Against Which Oracle? Execution Labels Set the Reported Risk of Conformal Abstention for Text-to-SQL22 Sep 2026
- 2026When Do Supervised UQ Ensembles Improve LLM Hallucination Detection? A Robustness Study25 Aug 2026
- 2026Beyond Single-Turn Confidence: Trajectory-Adapted Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents12 Aug 2026
- 2026A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models18 Jun 2026
- 2026DECK: A Consistency x Confidence Taxonomy of LLM Hallucinations1 Jun 2026
- 2026Hallucination Mitigation with Agentic AI, Nested Learning, and AI Sustainability via Semantic Caching27 May 2026
- 2026Functional Entropy: Predicting Functional Correctness in LLM-Generated Code with Uncertainty Quantification27 May 2026
- 2026Is Escalation Worth It? On the Depth of LLM Cascades7 May 2026
- 2026Zero-Shot Confidence Estimation for Small LLMs: When Supervised Baselines Aren't Worth Training4 May 2026
- 2026Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilities11 Mar 2026
6 more
- 2026Fine-Grained Uncertainty Quantification for Long-Form Language Model Outputs: A Comparative Study19 Feb 2026
- 2026Entropy Sentinel: Probing Entropy Traces for LLM Monitoring13 Jan 2026
- 2026Two Pathways to Truthfulness: On the Intrinsic Encoding of LLM Hallucinations12 Jan 2026
- 2025Echo-CoPilot: A Multiple-Perspective Agentic Framework for Reliable Echocardiography Interpretation6 Dec 2025
- 2025QA-Dragon: Query-Aware Dynamic RAG System for Knowledge-Intensive Visual Question Answering7 Aug 2025
- 2025UQLM: A Python Package for Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models8 Jul 2025
- 2025UQLM: A Python Package for Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Modelscited by 9
- 2026Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilitiescited by 5
- 2026Fine-Grained Uncertainty Quantification for Long-Form Language Model Outputs: A Comparative Studycited by 4
- 2026Is Escalation Worth It? On the Depth of LLM Cascadescited by 4
- 2026Functional Entropy: Predicting Functional Correctness in LLM-Generated Code with Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 3
- 2026Entropy Sentinel: Probing Entropy Traces for LLM Monitoringcited by 2
- 2026A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Modelscited by 2
- 2026Two Pathways to Truthfulness: On the Intrinsic Encoding of LLM Hallucinationscited by 1
- 2026Zero-Shot Confidence Estimation for Small LLMs: When Supervised Baselines Aren't Worth Trainingcited by 1
- 2026Hallucination Mitigation with Agentic AI, Nested Learning, and AI Sustainability via Semantic Cachingcited by 1
- 2025Echo-CoPilot: A Multiple-Perspective Agentic Framework for Reliable Echocardiography Interpretationcited by 0
- 2026DECK: A Consistency x Confidence Taxonomy of LLM Hallucinationscited by 0
12 most cited of 16 All 16 (JSON)
- 2026One-Sided Verification Under Limited Expert Review13 Oct 2026
- 2026Conformal Prediction with Paraphrase-Aware Scoring for LLM Uncertainty Quantification3 Oct 2026
- 2026Certified Against Which Oracle? Execution Labels Set the Reported Risk of Conformal Abstention for Text-to-SQL22 Sep 2026
- 2026When Do Supervised UQ Ensembles Improve LLM Hallucination Detection? A Robustness Study25 Aug 2026
- 2026A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models18 Jun 2026
- 2026DECK: A Consistency x Confidence Taxonomy of LLM Hallucinations1 Jun 2026
- 2026Hallucination Mitigation with Agentic AI, Nested Learning, and AI Sustainability via Semantic Caching27 May 2026
- 2026Functional Entropy: Predicting Functional Correctness in LLM-Generated Code with Uncertainty Quantification27 May 2026
- 2026Is Escalation Worth It? On the Depth of LLM Cascades7 May 2026
- 2026Zero-Shot Confidence Estimation for Small LLMs: When Supervised Baselines Aren't Worth Training4 May 2026
- 2026Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilities11 Mar 2026
- 2026Fine-Grained Uncertainty Quantification for Long-Form Language Model Outputs: A Comparative Study19 Feb 2026
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