Understanding the Impact of Confidence in Retrieval Augmented Generation: A Case Study in the Medical Domain
On the map: Retrieval-augmented generation → RAG pipeline design and evaluation
Abstract (arXiv)
Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) complements the knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs) by leveraging external information to enhance response accuracy for queries. This approach is widely applied in several fields by taking its advantage of injecting the most up-to-date information, and researchers are focusing on understanding and improving this aspect to unlock the full potential of RAG in such high-stakes applications. However, despite the potential of RAG to address these needs, the mechanisms behind the confidence levels of its outputs remain underexplored. Our study focuses on the impact of RAG, specifically examining whether RAG improves the confidence of LLM outputs in the medical domain. We conduct this analysis across various configurations and models. We evaluate confidence by treating the model's predicted probability as its output and calculating several evaluation metrics which include calibration error method, entropy, the best probability, and accuracy. Experimental results across multiple datasets confirmed that certain models possess the capability to judge for themselves whether an inserted document relates to the correct answer. These results suggest that evaluating models based on their output probabilities determine whether they function as generators in the RAG framework. Our approach allows us to evaluate whether the models handle retrieved documents.
Key facts. Cited by 9 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in RAG pipeline design and evaluation, one of 15 directions in Retrieval-augmented generation. Builds on 26 of its 43 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 29 Dec 2024.
Builds on
26 of 43 references.
Closest ancestors · 1
Same direction, newest first
Other references · 25
- 2023GPT-4 Technical Reportcited by 18,396
- 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,715
- 2023LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Modelscited by 14,132
- 2020Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Taskscited by 9,297
- 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,960
- 2023Lost in the Middle: How Language Models Use Long Contextscited by 3,455
- 2024Gemma 2: Improving Open Language Models at a Practical Sizecited by 1,998
- 2024Phi-3 Technical Report: A Highly Capable Language Model Locally on Your Phonecited by 1,917
- 2023Self-RAG: Learning to Retrieve, Generate, and Critique through Self-Reflectioncited by 1,839
- 2019PubMedQA: A Dataset for Biomedical Research Question Answeringcited by 1,288
- 2019Measuring Calibration in Deep Learningcited by 446
- 2020How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answeringcited by 445
13 more
- 2019Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibrationcited by 364
- 2024Benchmarking Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Medicinecited by 331
- 2019Verified Uncertainty Calibrationcited by 309
- 2023A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 256
- 2023LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Modelscited by 131
- 2023SAC3: Reliable Hallucination Detection in Black-Box Language Models via Semantic-aware Cross-check Consistencycited by 90
- 2022Stop Measuring Calibration When Humans Disagreecited by 71
- 2024Rationale-Guided Retrieval Augmented Generation for Medical Question Answeringcited by 41
- 2024LLM-jp: A Cross-organizational Project for the Research and Development of Fully Open Japanese LLMscited by 33
- 2024Cycles of Thought: Measuring LLM Confidence through Stable Explanationscited by 29
- 2022Exploring Predictive Uncertainty and Calibration in NLP: A Study on the Impact of Method & Data Scarcitycited by 25
- 2024Controlling Risk of Retrieval-augmented Generation: A Counterfactual Prompting Frameworkcited by 12
- 2024Can We Trust the Performance Evaluation of Uncertainty Estimation Methods in Text Summarization?cited by 3
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2025: 6; 2026: 3.
9 papers.
- 2025Retrieval-Augmented Generation: A Comprehensive Survey of Architectures, Enhancements, and Robustness Frontierscited by 27
- 2025SearchRAG: Can Search Engines Be Helpful for LLM-based Medical Question Answering?cited by 9
- 2026NOVA: NOise-aware Verbal Confidence CAlibration for Robust Large Language Models in RAG Systemscited by 6
- 2025Transparentize the Internal and External Knowledge Utilization in LLMs with Trustworthy Citationcited by 4
- 2025IterKey: Iterative Keyword Generation with LLMs for Enhanced Retrieval Augmented Generationcited by 4
- 2025Decoding Uncertainty: The Impact of Decoding Strategies for Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Modelscited by 3
- 2025TextTIGER: Text-based Intelligent Generation with Entity Prompt Refinement for Text-to-Image Generationcited by 1
- 2026Identifying Influential N-grams in Confidence Calibration via Regression Analysiscited by 0
- 2026Less Data Approximates More: Earning Faithful Confidence in High-Stakes Domainscited by 0
- 2026Less Data Approximates More: Earning Faithful Confidence in High-Stakes Domains9 Apr 2026
- 2026Identifying Influential N-grams in Confidence Calibration via Regression Analysis7 Apr 2026
- 2026NOVA: NOise-aware Verbal Confidence CAlibration for Robust Large Language Models in RAG Systems16 Jan 2026
- 2025Decoding Uncertainty: The Impact of Decoding Strategies for Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models20 Sep 2025
- 2025Retrieval-Augmented Generation: A Comprehensive Survey of Architectures, Enhancements, and Robustness Frontiers28 May 2025
- 2025IterKey: Iterative Keyword Generation with LLMs for Enhanced Retrieval Augmented Generation13 May 2025
- 2025TextTIGER: Text-based Intelligent Generation with Entity Prompt Refinement for Text-to-Image Generation25 Apr 2025
- 2025Transparentize the Internal and External Knowledge Utilization in LLMs with Trustworthy Citation21 Apr 2025
- 2025SearchRAG: Can Search Engines Be Helpful for LLM-based Medical Question Answering?18 Feb 2025
Similar, not cited
Close in wording, no citation either way
- 2025Rethinking Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Medicine: A Large-Scale, Systematic Expert Evaluation and Practical Insights
- 2024Development and Testing of Retrieval Augmented Generation in Large Language Models -- A Case Study Report
- 2024Retrieval-Augmented Generation with Estimation of Source Reliability
- 2024Deploying Large Language Models With Retrieval Augmented Generation
- 2025Retrieval-Augmented Generation in Medicine: A Scoping Review of Technical Implementations, Clinical Applications, and Ethical Considerations
- 2025Towards Trustworthy Retrieval Augmented Generation for Large Language Models: A Survey
- 2024Towards Understanding Systems Trade-offs in Retrieval-Augmented Generation Model Inference
- 2025Retrieval Augmented Generation Evaluation in the Era of Large Language Models: A Comprehensive Survey