mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Amortized Bayesian Experimental Design for Decision-Making

arXiv 2411.02064 ↗First posted 4 Nov 2024stat.ML cs.LGcited by 20

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Abstract (arXiv)

Many critical decisions, such as personalized medical diagnoses and product pricing, are made based on insights gained from designing, observing, and analyzing a series of experiments. This highlights the crucial role of experimental design, which goes beyond merely collecting information on system parameters as in traditional Bayesian experimental design (BED), but also plays a key part in facilitating downstream decision-making. Most recent BED methods use an amortized policy network to rapidly design experiments. However, the information gathered through these methods is suboptimal for down-the-line decision-making, as the experiments are not inherently designed with downstream objectives in mind. In this paper, we present an amortized decision-aware BED framework that prioritizes maximizing downstream decision utility. We introduce a novel architecture, the Transformer Neural Decision Process (TNDP), capable of instantly proposing the next experimental design, whilst inferring the downstream decision, thus effectively amortizing both tasks within a unified workflow. We demonstrate the performance of our method across several tasks, showing that it can deliver informative designs and facilitate accurate decision-making.

Key facts. Cited by 20 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 38 of its 59 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Nov 2024.

Builds on

38 of 59 references.

References · 38

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 59,932
  2. 2019PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Librarycited by 20,160
  3. 2017Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithmscited by 14,441
  4. 2021Decision Transformer: Reinforcement Learning via Sequence Modelingcited by 1,528
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  10. 2023Modern Bayesian Experimental Designcited by 121
  11. 2019Variational Bayesian Optimal Experimental Designcited by 116
  12. 2021Deep Adaptive Design: Amortizing Sequential Bayesian Experimental Designcited by 103
26 more
  1. 2017On Nesting Monte Carlo Estimatorscited by 82
  2. 2021HPO-B: A Large-Scale Reproducible Benchmark for Black-Box HPO based on OpenMLcited by 75
  3. 2023PFNs4BO: In-Context Learning for Bayesian Optimizationcited by 70
  4. 2021Implicit Deep Adaptive Design: Policy-Based Experimental Design without Likelihoodscited by 61
  5. 2023Prediction-Oriented Bayesian Active Learningcited by 60
  6. 2019A Unified Stochastic Gradient Approach to Designing Bayesian-Optimal Experimentscited by 58
  7. 2020Bayesian Experimental Design for Implicit Models by Mutual Information Neural Estimationcited by 56
  8. 2023Learning Robust Statistics for Simulation-based Inference under Model Misspecificationcited by 48
  9. 2022Optimizing Sequential Experimental Design with Deep Reinforcement Learningcited by 45
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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 1; 2025: 8; 2026: 11.

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  1. 2024Rethinking Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertaintycited by 40
  2. 2025Step-DAD: Semi-Amortized Policy-Based Bayesian Experimental Designcited by 12
  3. 2025ALINE: Joint Amortization for Bayesian Inference and Active Data Acquisitioncited by 8
  4. 2025PABBO: Preferential Amortized Black-Box Optimizationcited by 7
  5. 2025In-Context Multi-Objective Optimizationcited by 5
  6. 2025Amortized Safe Active Learning for Real-Time Data Acquisition: Pretrained Neural Policies From Simulated Nonparametric Functionscited by 3
  7. 2025JADAI: Jointly Amortizing Adaptive Design and Bayesian Inferencecited by 2
  8. 2026From Mice to Trains: Amortized Bayesian Inference on Graph Datacited by 2
  9. 2026Constrained Bayesian Experimental Design via Online Planningcited by 2
  10. 2026Efficient Adaptive Data Acquisition via Pretrained Belief Representationscited by 2
  11. 2025BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories under Spatio-Temporal Vector Fieldscited by 1
  12. 2026Loss-Driven Bayesian Active Learningcited by 1
8 more
  1. 2025Direct Regret Optimization in Bayesian Optimizationcited by 0
  2. 2026Adaptive Prompt Elicitation for Text-to-Image Generationcited by 0
  3. 2026Goal-driven Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design for Robust Decision-Making Under Model Uncertaintycited by 0
  4. 2026FairBED: A Bayesian Experimental Design Approach to Gathering Fairer Datacited by 0
  5. 2026Robust Bayesian Decision Making under Adversarial Uncertaintycited by 0
  6. 2026Deep Adaptive Bayesian Screeningcited by 0
  7. 2026Verifiable abstention makes AI leak diagnosis accountable in urban water distribution networkscited by 0
  8. 2026NeuronSifter: Intervention Planning in CNS Microenvironmentscited by 0