Amortized Bayesian Experimental Design for Decision-Making
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Abstract (arXiv)
Many critical decisions, such as personalized medical diagnoses and product pricing, are made based on insights gained from designing, observing, and analyzing a series of experiments. This highlights the crucial role of experimental design, which goes beyond merely collecting information on system parameters as in traditional Bayesian experimental design (BED), but also plays a key part in facilitating downstream decision-making. Most recent BED methods use an amortized policy network to rapidly design experiments. However, the information gathered through these methods is suboptimal for down-the-line decision-making, as the experiments are not inherently designed with downstream objectives in mind. In this paper, we present an amortized decision-aware BED framework that prioritizes maximizing downstream decision utility. We introduce a novel architecture, the Transformer Neural Decision Process (TNDP), capable of instantly proposing the next experimental design, whilst inferring the downstream decision, thus effectively amortizing both tasks within a unified workflow. We demonstrate the performance of our method across several tasks, showing that it can deliver informative designs and facilitate accurate decision-making.
Key facts. Cited by 20 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 38 of its 59 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Nov 2024.
Builds on
38 of 59 references.
References · 38
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Citing papers per year: 2024: 1; 2025: 8; 2026: 11.
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- 2024Rethinking Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertaintycited by 40
- 2025Step-DAD: Semi-Amortized Policy-Based Bayesian Experimental Designcited by 12
- 2025ALINE: Joint Amortization for Bayesian Inference and Active Data Acquisitioncited by 8
- 2025PABBO: Preferential Amortized Black-Box Optimizationcited by 7
- 2025In-Context Multi-Objective Optimizationcited by 5
- 2025Amortized Safe Active Learning for Real-Time Data Acquisition: Pretrained Neural Policies From Simulated Nonparametric Functionscited by 3
- 2025JADAI: Jointly Amortizing Adaptive Design and Bayesian Inferencecited by 2
- 2026From Mice to Trains: Amortized Bayesian Inference on Graph Datacited by 2
- 2026Constrained Bayesian Experimental Design via Online Planningcited by 2
- 2026Efficient Adaptive Data Acquisition via Pretrained Belief Representationscited by 2
- 2025BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories under Spatio-Temporal Vector Fieldscited by 1
- 2026Loss-Driven Bayesian Active Learningcited by 1
8 more
- 2025Direct Regret Optimization in Bayesian Optimizationcited by 0
- 2026Adaptive Prompt Elicitation for Text-to-Image Generationcited by 0
- 2026Goal-driven Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design for Robust Decision-Making Under Model Uncertaintycited by 0
- 2026FairBED: A Bayesian Experimental Design Approach to Gathering Fairer Datacited by 0
- 2026Robust Bayesian Decision Making under Adversarial Uncertaintycited by 0
- 2026Deep Adaptive Bayesian Screeningcited by 0
- 2026Verifiable abstention makes AI leak diagnosis accountable in urban water distribution networkscited by 0
- 2026NeuronSifter: Intervention Planning in CNS Microenvironmentscited by 0
- 2026NeuronSifter: Intervention Planning in CNS Microenvironments28 Sep 2026
- 2026Verifiable abstention makes AI leak diagnosis accountable in urban water distribution networks19 Aug 2026
- 2026Deep Adaptive Bayesian Screening18 Jul 2026
- 2026Robust Bayesian Decision Making under Adversarial Uncertainty9 Jul 2026
- 2026Efficient Adaptive Data Acquisition via Pretrained Belief Representations23 Jun 2026
- 2026FairBED: A Bayesian Experimental Design Approach to Gathering Fairer Data22 Jun 2026
- 2026Constrained Bayesian Experimental Design via Online Planning26 May 2026
- 2026Goal-driven Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design for Robust Decision-Making Under Model Uncertainty25 May 2026
- 2026Loss-Driven Bayesian Active Learning13 Apr 2026
- 2026Adaptive Prompt Elicitation for Text-to-Image Generation4 Feb 2026
- 2026From Mice to Trains: Amortized Bayesian Inference on Graph Data5 Jan 2026
- 2025JADAI: Jointly Amortizing Adaptive Design and Bayesian Inference28 Dec 2025
8 more
- 2025In-Context Multi-Objective Optimization11 Dec 2025
- 2025BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories under Spatio-Temporal Vector Fields30 Sep 2025
- 2025Step-DAD: Semi-Amortized Policy-Based Bayesian Experimental Design18 Jul 2025
- 2025Direct Regret Optimization in Bayesian Optimization9 Jul 2025
- 2025ALINE: Joint Amortization for Bayesian Inference and Active Data Acquisition8 Jun 2025
- 2025PABBO: Preferential Amortized Black-Box Optimization2 Mar 2025
- 2025Amortized Safe Active Learning for Real-Time Data Acquisition: Pretrained Neural Policies From Simulated Nonparametric Functions26 Jan 2025
- 2024Rethinking Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty30 Dec 2024
- 2025Direct Regret Optimization in Bayesian Optimizationcited by 0
- 2025Direct Regret Optimization in Bayesian Optimization9 Jul 2025
- 2024Rethinking Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertaintycited by 40
- 2025Step-DAD: Semi-Amortized Policy-Based Bayesian Experimental Designcited by 12
- 2025ALINE: Joint Amortization for Bayesian Inference and Active Data Acquisitioncited by 8
- 2025PABBO: Preferential Amortized Black-Box Optimizationcited by 7
- 2025In-Context Multi-Objective Optimizationcited by 5
- 2025Amortized Safe Active Learning for Real-Time Data Acquisition: Pretrained Neural Policies From Simulated Nonparametric Functionscited by 3
- 2025JADAI: Jointly Amortizing Adaptive Design and Bayesian Inferencecited by 2
- 2026From Mice to Trains: Amortized Bayesian Inference on Graph Datacited by 2
- 2026Constrained Bayesian Experimental Design via Online Planningcited by 2
- 2026Efficient Adaptive Data Acquisition via Pretrained Belief Representationscited by 2
- 2025BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories under Spatio-Temporal Vector Fieldscited by 1
- 2026Loss-Driven Bayesian Active Learningcited by 1
12 most cited of 19 All 19 (JSON)
- 2026NeuronSifter: Intervention Planning in CNS Microenvironments28 Sep 2026
- 2026Verifiable abstention makes AI leak diagnosis accountable in urban water distribution networks19 Aug 2026
- 2026Deep Adaptive Bayesian Screening18 Jul 2026
- 2026Robust Bayesian Decision Making under Adversarial Uncertainty9 Jul 2026
- 2026Efficient Adaptive Data Acquisition via Pretrained Belief Representations23 Jun 2026
- 2026FairBED: A Bayesian Experimental Design Approach to Gathering Fairer Data22 Jun 2026
- 2026Constrained Bayesian Experimental Design via Online Planning26 May 2026
- 2026Goal-driven Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design for Robust Decision-Making Under Model Uncertainty25 May 2026
- 2026Loss-Driven Bayesian Active Learning13 Apr 2026
- 2026Adaptive Prompt Elicitation for Text-to-Image Generation4 Feb 2026
- 2026From Mice to Trains: Amortized Bayesian Inference on Graph Data5 Jan 2026
- 2025JADAI: Jointly Amortizing Adaptive Design and Bayesian Inference28 Dec 2025
12 newest of 19 All 19 (JSON)