Urban context and delivery performance: Modelling service time for cargo bikes and vans across diverse urban environments

Light goods vehicles (LGV) used extensively in the last mile of delivery are one of the leading polluters in cities. Cargo-bike logistics and Light Electric Vehicles (LEVs) have been put forward as a high impact candidate for replacing LGVs. Studies have estimated over half of urban van deliveries being replaceable by cargo-bikes, due to their faster speeds, shorter parking times and more efficient routes across cities. However, the logistics sector suffers from a lack of publicly available data, particularly pertaining to cargo-bike deliveries, thus limiting the understanding of their potential benefits. Specifically, service time (which includes cruising for parking, and walking to destination) is a major, but often overlooked component of delivery time modelling. The aim of this study is to establish a framework for measuring the performance of delivery vehicles, with an initial focus on modelling service times of vans and cargo-bikes across diverse urban environments. We introduce two datasets that allow for in-depth analysis and modelling of service times of cargo bikes and use existing datasets to reason about differences in delivery performance across vehicle types. We introduce a modelling framework to predict the service times of deliveries based on urban context. We employ Uber's H3 index to divide cities into hexagonal cells and aggregate OpenStreetMap tags for each cell, providing a detailed assessment of urban context. Leveraging this spatial grid, we use GeoVex to represent micro-regions as points in a continuous vector space, which then serve as input for predicting vehicle service times. We show that geospatial embeddings can effectively capture urban contexts and facilitate generalizations to new contexts and cities. Our methodology addresses the challenge of limited comparative data available for different vehicle types within the same urban settings.