Explaining a probabilistic prediction on the simplex with Shapley compositions
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Originating in game theory, Shapley values are widely used for explaining a machine learning model's prediction by quantifying the contribution of each feature's value to the prediction. This requires a scalar prediction as in binary classification, whereas a multiclass probabilistic prediction is a discrete probability distribution, living on a multidimensional simplex. In such a multiclass setting the Shapley values are typically computed separately on each class in a one-vs-rest manner, ignoring the compositional nature of the output distribution. In this paper, we introduce Shapley compositions as a well-founded way to properly explain a multiclass probabilistic prediction, using the Aitchison geometry from compositional data analysis. We prove that the Shapley composition is the unique quantity satisfying linearity, symmetry and efficiency on the Aitchison simplex, extending the corresponding axiomatic properties of the standard Shapley value. We demonstrate this proper multiclass treatment in a range of scenarios.
Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 9 of its 32 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 2 Aug 2024.
Builds on
9 of 32 references.
References · 9
- 2017A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictionscited by 6,488
- 2016"Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifiercited by 5,040
- 2018All Models are Wrong, but Many are Useful: Learning a Variable's Importance by Studying an Entire Class of Prediction Models Simultaneouslycited by 364
- 2016Visualizing the Effects of Predictor Variables in Black Box Supervised Learning Modelscited by 212
- 2019Explaining individual predictions when features are dependent: More accurate approximations to Shapley valuescited by 205
- 2019Explainability Fact Sheets: A Framework for Systematic Assessment of Explainable Approachescited by 101
- 2018A Simple and Effective Model-Based Variable Importance Measurecited by 50
- 2021An Imprecise SHAP as a Tool for Explaining the Class Probability Distributions under Limited Training Datacited by 6
- 2024Explaining Probabilistic Models with Distributional Valuescited by 3
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2025: 2.
2 papers.