FamiCom: Further Demystifying Prompts for Language Models with Task-Agnostic Performance Estimation

Language models have shown impressive in-context-learning capabilities, which allow them to benefit from input prompts and perform better on downstream end tasks. Existing works investigate the mechanisms behind this observation, and propose label-agnostic prompt metrics that can better estimate end-task performances. One popular approach is using perplexity as a way to measure models' familiarity with the prompt. While showing consistent improvements on in-domain tasks, we found that familiarity metrics such as perplexity cannot accurately estimate performance in complicated situations such as task or domain transferring scenarios. In this work, we propose a revised measure called FamiCom, providing a more comprehensive measure for task-agnostic performance estimation. Specifically, FamiCom combines familiarity with textitcomplexity -- the inherent difficulty of end tasks, which is an important factor missing from current metrics. Experiments show that FamiCom strongly correlates with end-task performances, producing a 0.85 Spearman's correlation, versus 0.43 of familiarity-only ones'. We further apply FamiCom to automatic prompt and demonstration selection, and outperform existing methods and baselines by more than 7.0% in accuracy.