Optimising Calls to Large Language Models with Uncertainty-Based Two-Tier Selection
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Abstract (arXiv)
Researchers and practitioners operating on a limited budget face the cost-performance trade-off dilemma. The challenging decision often centers on whether to use a large LLM with better performance or a smaller one with reduced costs. This has motivated recent research in the optimisation of LLM calls. Either a cascading strategy is used, where a smaller LLM or both are called sequentially, or a routing strategy is used, where only one model is ever called. Both scenarios are dependent on a decision criterion which is typically implemented by an extra neural model. In this work, we propose a simpler solution; we use only the uncertainty of the generations of the small LLM as the decision criterion. We compare our approach with both cascading and routing strategies using three different pairs of pre-trained small and large LLMs, on nine different tasks and against approaches that require an additional neural model. Our experiments reveal this simple solution optimally balances cost and performance, outperforming existing methods on 25 out of 27 experimental setups.
Key facts. Cited by 32 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 23 of its 33 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 3 May 2024.
Builds on
23 of 33 references.
References · 23
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11 more
- 2024Hybrid LLM: Cost-Efficient and Quality-Aware Query Routingcited by 354
- 2015Towards AI-Complete Question Answering: A Set of Prerequisite Toy Taskscited by 309
- 2023Routing to the Expert: Efficient Reward-guided Ensemble of Large Language Modelscited by 141
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- 2024A Framework for Effective Invocation Methods of Various LLM Servicescited by 4
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Citing papers per year: 2024: 5; 2025: 12; 2026: 15.
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- 2024A Unified Approach to Routing and Cascading for LLMscited by 71
- 2025RouterEval: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Routing LLMs to Explore Model-level Scaling Up in LLMscited by 58
- 2025Optimizing Model Selection for Compound AI Systemscited by 34
- 2024CLAVE: An Adaptive Framework for Evaluating Values of LLM Generated Responsescited by 23
- 2024A Survey on the Honesty of Large Language Modelscited by 21
- 2025Doing More with Less: A Survey on Routing Strategies for Resource Optimisation in Large Language Model-Based Systemscited by 18
- 2025TagRouter: Learning Route to LLMs through Tags for Open-Domain Text Generation Taskscited by 9
- 2025Rethinking Predictive Modeling for LLM Routing: When Simple kNN Beats Complex Learned Routerscited by 7
- 2025SATER: A Self-Aware and Token-Efficient Approach to Routing and Cascadingcited by 6
- 2024Verbosity neq Veracity: Demystify Verbosity Compensation Behavior of Large Language Modelscited by 5
- 2025Towards Efficient Multi-LLM Inference: Characterization and Analysis of LLM Routing and Hierarchical Techniquescited by 5
- 2025Lossless Acceleration of Large Language Models with Hierarchical Drafting based on Temporal Locality in Speculative Decodingcited by 4
20 more
- 2025Translate Smart, not Hard: Cascaded Translation Systems with Quality-Aware Deferralcited by 4
- 2026The Price Reversal Phenomenon: When Cheaper Reasoning Models Cost Morecited by 3
- 2026Atropos: Improving Cost-Benefit Trade-off of LLM-based Agents under Self-Consistency with Early Termination and Model Hotswapcited by 3
- 2026Optimizing the Cost-Quality Tradeoff of Agentic Theorem Provers in Leancited by 3
- 2026From Sampled Outcomes to Capability Distributions: Rethinking Supervision for LLM Routingcited by 3
- 2025Can Confidence Estimates Decide When Chain-of-Thought Is Necessary for LLMs?cited by 2
- 2026Towards Fair and Comprehensive Evaluation of Routers in Collaborative LLM Systemscited by 2
- 2026The Anatomy of Uncertainty in LLMscited by 2
- 2024Trigger3: Refining Query Correction via Adaptive Model Selectorcited by 1
- 2026Computational Arbitrage in AI Model Marketscited by 1
- 2026RouteJudge: An Open Platform for Reproducible and Preference-Aware LLM Routingcited by 1
- 2025Invoke Interfaces Only When Needed: Adaptive Invocation for Large Language Models in Question Answeringcited by 0
- 2025Controlling What You Share: Assessing Language Model Adherence to Privacy Preferencescited by 0
- 2026Accuracy-Delay Trade-Off in LLM Offloading via Token-Level Uncertaintycited by 0
- 2026When Efficiency Backfires: Cascading LLMs Trigger Cascade Failure under Adversarial Attackcited by 0
- 2026Continual Learning for Sequential Personalization of Small Language Models: A Stability Monitoring Analysiscited by 0
- 2026CAMI: Cost-Aware Agent-Guided Multi-Indexing for Semantic Retrievalcited by 0
- 2026Multi-Agent Scheduling with LLM-Assisted Contract Net Negotiation for Stream Processing in Mobile Edge Computingcited by 0
- 2026Online Learning with LLM Experts from Limited Feedbackcited by 0
- 2026Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades for Efficient Heterogeneous Model Collaborationcited by 0
- 2026Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades for Efficient Heterogeneous Model Collaboration10 Sep 2026
- 2026Online Learning with LLM Experts from Limited Feedback5 Sep 2026
- 2026Multi-Agent Scheduling with LLM-Assisted Contract Net Negotiation for Stream Processing in Mobile Edge Computing19 Jul 2026
- 2026Continual Learning for Sequential Personalization of Small Language Models: A Stability Monitoring Analysis26 Jun 2026
- 2026RouteJudge: An Open Platform for Reproducible and Preference-Aware LLM Routing17 Jun 2026
- 2026CAMI: Cost-Aware Agent-Guided Multi-Indexing for Semantic Retrieval14 Jun 2026
- 2026From Sampled Outcomes to Capability Distributions: Rethinking Supervision for LLM Routing5 Jun 2026
- 2026Optimizing the Cost-Quality Tradeoff of Agentic Theorem Provers in Lean3 Jun 2026
- 2026When Efficiency Backfires: Cascading LLMs Trigger Cascade Failure under Adversarial Attack17 May 2026
- 2026Atropos: Improving Cost-Benefit Trade-off of LLM-based Agents under Self-Consistency with Early Termination and Model Hotswap16 Apr 2026
- 2026The Anatomy of Uncertainty in LLMs26 Mar 2026
- 2026The Price Reversal Phenomenon: When Cheaper Reasoning Models Cost More25 Mar 2026
20 more
- 2026Computational Arbitrage in AI Model Markets23 Mar 2026
- 2026Towards Fair and Comprehensive Evaluation of Routers in Collaborative LLM Systems12 Feb 2026
- 2026Accuracy-Delay Trade-Off in LLM Offloading via Token-Level Uncertainty8 Feb 2026
- 2025Can Confidence Estimates Decide When Chain-of-Thought Is Necessary for LLMs?23 Oct 2025
- 2025SATER: A Self-Aware and Token-Efficient Approach to Routing and Cascading4 Oct 2025
- 2025Controlling What You Share: Assessing Language Model Adherence to Privacy Preferences7 Jul 2025
- 2025TagRouter: Learning Route to LLMs through Tags for Open-Domain Text Generation Tasks14 Jun 2025
- 2025Towards Efficient Multi-LLM Inference: Characterization and Analysis of LLM Routing and Hierarchical Techniques6 Jun 2025
- 2025Rethinking Predictive Modeling for LLM Routing: When Simple kNN Beats Complex Learned Routers19 May 2025
- 2025Invoke Interfaces Only When Needed: Adaptive Invocation for Large Language Models in Question Answering5 May 2025
- 2025RouterEval: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Routing LLMs to Explore Model-level Scaling Up in LLMs8 Mar 2025
- 2025Optimizing Model Selection for Compound AI Systems20 Feb 2025
- 2025Translate Smart, not Hard: Cascaded Translation Systems with Quality-Aware Deferral18 Feb 2025
- 2025Lossless Acceleration of Large Language Models with Hierarchical Drafting based on Temporal Locality in Speculative Decoding8 Feb 2025
- 2025Doing More with Less: A Survey on Routing Strategies for Resource Optimisation in Large Language Model-Based Systems1 Feb 2025
- 2024Trigger3: Refining Query Correction via Adaptive Model Selector17 Dec 2024
- 2024Verbosity neq Veracity: Demystify Verbosity Compensation Behavior of Large Language Models12 Nov 2024
- 2024A Unified Approach to Routing and Cascading for LLMs14 Oct 2024
- 2024A Survey on the Honesty of Large Language Models27 Sep 2024
- 2024CLAVE: An Adaptive Framework for Evaluating Values of LLM Generated Responses15 Jul 2024
- 2025Rethinking Predictive Modeling for LLM Routing: When Simple kNN Beats Complex Learned Routerscited by 7
- 2026The Price Reversal Phenomenon: When Cheaper Reasoning Models Cost Morecited by 3
- 2026Atropos: Improving Cost-Benefit Trade-off of LLM-based Agents under Self-Consistency with Early Termination and Model Hotswapcited by 3
- 2026From Sampled Outcomes to Capability Distributions: Rethinking Supervision for LLM Routingcited by 3
- 2025Can Confidence Estimates Decide When Chain-of-Thought Is Necessary for LLMs?cited by 2
- 2026From Sampled Outcomes to Capability Distributions: Rethinking Supervision for LLM Routing5 Jun 2026
- 2026Atropos: Improving Cost-Benefit Trade-off of LLM-based Agents under Self-Consistency with Early Termination and Model Hotswap16 Apr 2026
- 2026The Price Reversal Phenomenon: When Cheaper Reasoning Models Cost More25 Mar 2026
- 2025Can Confidence Estimates Decide When Chain-of-Thought Is Necessary for LLMs?23 Oct 2025
- 2025Rethinking Predictive Modeling for LLM Routing: When Simple kNN Beats Complex Learned Routers19 May 2025
- 2024A Survey on the Honesty of Large Language Modelscited by 21
- 2024A Survey on the Honesty of Large Language Models27 Sep 2024
- 2025RouterEval: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Routing LLMs to Explore Model-level Scaling Up in LLMscited by 58
- 2025Optimizing Model Selection for Compound AI Systemscited by 34
- 2024CLAVE: An Adaptive Framework for Evaluating Values of LLM Generated Responsescited by 23
- 2025Doing More with Less: A Survey on Routing Strategies for Resource Optimisation in Large Language Model-Based Systemscited by 18
- 2025TagRouter: Learning Route to LLMs through Tags for Open-Domain Text Generation Taskscited by 9
- 2025SATER: A Self-Aware and Token-Efficient Approach to Routing and Cascadingcited by 6
- 2024Verbosity neq Veracity: Demystify Verbosity Compensation Behavior of Large Language Modelscited by 5
- 2025Towards Efficient Multi-LLM Inference: Characterization and Analysis of LLM Routing and Hierarchical Techniquescited by 5
- 2025Translate Smart, not Hard: Cascaded Translation Systems with Quality-Aware Deferralcited by 4
- 2026Towards Fair and Comprehensive Evaluation of Routers in Collaborative LLM Systemscited by 2
- 2026The Anatomy of Uncertainty in LLMscited by 2
- 2024Trigger3: Refining Query Correction via Adaptive Model Selectorcited by 1
12 most cited of 22 All 22 (JSON)
- 2026Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades for Efficient Heterogeneous Model Collaboration10 Sep 2026
- 2026Online Learning with LLM Experts from Limited Feedback5 Sep 2026
- 2026Continual Learning for Sequential Personalization of Small Language Models: A Stability Monitoring Analysis26 Jun 2026
- 2026RouteJudge: An Open Platform for Reproducible and Preference-Aware LLM Routing17 Jun 2026
- 2026CAMI: Cost-Aware Agent-Guided Multi-Indexing for Semantic Retrieval14 Jun 2026
- 2026When Efficiency Backfires: Cascading LLMs Trigger Cascade Failure under Adversarial Attack17 May 2026
- 2026The Anatomy of Uncertainty in LLMs26 Mar 2026
- 2026Computational Arbitrage in AI Model Markets23 Mar 2026
- 2026Towards Fair and Comprehensive Evaluation of Routers in Collaborative LLM Systems12 Feb 2026
- 2026Accuracy-Delay Trade-Off in LLM Offloading via Token-Level Uncertainty8 Feb 2026
- 2025SATER: A Self-Aware and Token-Efficient Approach to Routing and Cascading4 Oct 2025
- 2025Controlling What You Share: Assessing Language Model Adherence to Privacy Preferences7 Jul 2025
12 newest of 22 All 22 (JSON)