Position: Stop Making Unscientific AGI Performance Claims
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Developments in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and particularly large language models (LLMs), have created a 'perfect storm' for observing 'sparks' of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) that are spurious. Like simpler models, LLMs distill meaningful representations in their latent embeddings that have been shown to correlate with external variables. Nonetheless, the correlation of such representations has often been linked to human-like intelligence in the latter but not the former. We probe models of varying complexity including random projections, matrix decompositions, deep autoencoders and transformers: all of them successfully distill information that can be used to predict latent or external variables and yet none of them have previously been linked to AGI. We argue and empirically demonstrate that the finding of meaningful patterns in latent spaces of models cannot be seen as evidence in favor of AGI. Additionally, we review literature from the social sciences that shows that humans are prone to seek such patterns and anthropomorphize. We conclude that both the methodological setup and common public image of AI are ideal for the misinterpretation that correlations between model representations and some variables of interest are 'caused' by the model's understanding of underlying 'ground truth' relationships. We, therefore, call for the academic community to exercise extra caution, and to be keenly aware of principles of academic integrity, in interpreting and communicating about AI research outcomes.
Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 18 of its 53 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 6 Feb 2024.
Builds on
18 of 53 references.
References · 18
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- 2021The Values Encoded in Machine Learning Researchcited by 172
- 2023Causal Parrots: Large Language Models May Talk Causality But Are Not Causalcited by 150
6 more
- 2023Trillion Dollar Words: A New Financial Dataset, Task & Market Analysiscited by 75
- 2013Experiments with Random Projectioncited by 27
- 2023"AI enhances our performance, I have no doubt this one will do the same": The Placebo effect is robust to negative descriptions of AIcited by 11
- 2020Regularization of Inverse Problems by Neural Networkscited by 6
- 2024Position: AI/ML Influencers Have a Place in the Academic Processcited by 3
- 2023Treat societally impactful scientific insights as open-source software artifactscited by 1
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 2.
2 papers.