The Confidence-Competence Gap in Large Language Models: A Cognitive Study
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large Language Models (LLMs) have acquired ubiquitous attention for their performances across diverse domains. Our study here searches through LLMs' cognitive abilities and confidence dynamics. We dive deep into understanding the alignment between their self-assessed confidence and actual performance. We exploit these models with diverse sets of questionnaires and real-world scenarios and extract how LLMs exhibit confidence in their responses. Our findings reveal intriguing instances where models demonstrate high confidence even when they answer incorrectly. This is reminiscent of the Dunning-Kruger effect observed in human psychology. In contrast, there are cases where models exhibit low confidence with correct answers revealing potential underestimation biases. Our results underscore the need for a deeper understanding of their cognitive processes. By examining the nuances of LLMs' self-assessment mechanism, this investigation provides noteworthy revelations that serve to advance the functionalities and broaden the potential applications of these formidable language models.
Key facts. Cited by 9 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 17 of its 28 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 28 Sep 2023.
Builds on
17 of 28 references.
References · 17
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- 2022Training language models to follow instructions with human feedbackcited by 15,712
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- 2023Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Modelscited by 286
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5 more
- 2023Emotionally Numb or Empathetic? Evaluating How LLMs Feel Using EmotionBenchcited by 54
- 2021AR-LSAT: Investigating Analytical Reasoning of Textcited by 49
- 2021From LSAT: The Progress and Challenges of Complex Reasoningcited by 43
- 2023Position: AI Evaluation Should Learn from How We Test Humanscited by 36
- 2023Enhancing Large Language Models with Climate Resourcescited by 18
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2023: 1; 2024: 5; 2025: 2; 2026: 1.
9 papers.
- 2024Tug-of-War Between Knowledge: Exploring and Resolving Knowledge Conflicts in Retrieval-Augmented Language Modelscited by 93
- 2024Large Language Models and Cognitive Science: A Comprehensive Review of Similarities, Differences, and Challengescited by 48
- 2023Rescue: Ranking LLM Responses with Partial Ordering to Improve Response Generationcited by 4
- 2024GPT-4's assessment of its performance in a USMLE-based case studycited by 3
- 2025Beware of Reasoning Overconfidence: Pitfalls in the Reasoning Process for Multi-solution Taskscited by 2
- 2024Prompting the Unknown: Understanding Response Uncertainty in Large Language Modelscited by 1
- 2025Confidence is Not Competencecited by 1
- 2024Granting GPT-4 License and Opportunity: Enhancing Accuracy and Confidence Estimation for Few-Shot Event Detectioncited by 0
- 2026The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Large Language Models: An Empirical Study of Confidence Calibrationcited by 0
- 2026The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Large Language Models: An Empirical Study of Confidence Calibration12 Feb 2026
- 2025Beware of Reasoning Overconfidence: Pitfalls in the Reasoning Process for Multi-solution Tasks1 Dec 2025
- 2025Confidence is Not Competence24 Oct 2025
- 2024Large Language Models and Cognitive Science: A Comprehensive Review of Similarities, Differences, and Challenges4 Sep 2024
- 2024Granting GPT-4 License and Opportunity: Enhancing Accuracy and Confidence Estimation for Few-Shot Event Detection1 Aug 2024
- 2024Prompting the Unknown: Understanding Response Uncertainty in Large Language Models20 Jul 2024
- 2024Tug-of-War Between Knowledge: Exploring and Resolving Knowledge Conflicts in Retrieval-Augmented Language Models22 Feb 2024
- 2024GPT-4's assessment of its performance in a USMLE-based case study15 Feb 2024
- 2023Rescue: Ranking LLM Responses with Partial Ordering to Improve Response Generation15 Nov 2023