Mapping Urban Population Growth from Sentinel-2 MSI and Census Data Using Deep Learning: A Case Study in Kigali, Rwanda

To better understand current trends of urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, high-quality spatiotemporal population estimates are necessary. While the joint use of remote sensing and deep learning has achieved promising results for population distribution estimation, most of the current work focuses on fine-scale spatial predictions derived from single date census, thereby neglecting temporal analyses. In this work, we focus on evaluating how deep learning change detection techniques can unravel temporal population dynamics at short intervals. Since Post-Classification Comparison (PCC) methods for change detection are known to propagate the error of the individual maps, we propose an end-to-end population growth mapping method. Specifically, a ResNet encoder, pretrained on a population mapping task with Sentinel-2 MSI data, was incorporated into a Siamese network. The Siamese network was trained at the census level to accurately predict population change. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in Kigali, Rwanda, for the time period 2016-2020, using bi-temporal Sentinel-2 data. Compared to PCC, the Siamese network greatly reduced errors in population change predictions at the census level. These results show promise for future remote sensing-based population growth mapping endeavors.