Probe: Learning Users' Personalized Projection Bias in Intertemporal Choices

Intertemporal choices involve making decisions that require weighing the costs in the present against the benefits in the future. One specific type of intertemporal choice is the decision between purchasing an individual item or opting for a bundle that includes that item. Previous research assumes that individuals have accurate expectations of the factors involved in these choices. However, in reality, users' perceptions of these factors are often biased, leading to irrational and suboptimal decision-making. In this work, we specifically focus on two commonly observed biases: projection bias and the reference-point effect. To address these biases, we propose a novel bias-embedded preference model called Probe. The Probe incorporates a weight function to capture users' projection bias and a value function to account for the reference-point effect, and introduce prospect theory from behavioral economics to combine the weight and value functions. This allows us to determine the probability of users selecting the bundle or a single item. We provide a thorough theoretical analysis to demonstrate the impact of projection bias on the design of bundle sales strategies. Through experimental results, we show that the proposed Probe model outperforms existing methods and contributes to a better understanding of users' irrational behaviors in bundle purchases. This investigation can facilitate a deeper comprehension of users' decision-making mechanisms, enable the provision of personalized services, and assist users in making more rational and optimal decisions.