Adaptive Synaptic Failure Enables Sampling from Posterior Predictive Distributions in the Brain

Bayesian interpretations of neural processing require that biological mechanisms represent and operate upon probability distributions in accordance with Bayes' theorem. Many have speculated that synaptic failure constitutes a mechanism of variational, i.e., approximate, Bayesian inference in the brain. Whereas models have previously used synaptic failure to sample over uncertainty in model parameters, we demonstrate that by adapting transmission probabilities to learned network weights, synaptic failure can sample not only over model uncertainty, but complete posterior predictive distributions as well. Our results potentially explain the brain's ability to perform probabilistic searches and to approximate complex integrals. These operations are involved in numerous calculations, including likelihood evaluation and state value estimation for complex planning.